Bitcoin’s Correlation With S&P 500 Turns Positive, Signaling Risk of 50% Drop

Bitcoin has increasingly been viewed in recent years as a risk asset influenced by global liquidity, making its alignment with U.S. stocks an indicator of market stress. Cointelegraph cited analyst Tony Severino as saying that since 2018, BTC has fallen by an average of about 50% after its 20-week correlation with the S&P 500 turned from negative to positive. Reversals also followed several months later in 2020 and 2022.

As of March 22, 2026, BTC had fallen 5.65% for the week to about $68,700, while the S&P 500 was down 1.90% over the same period. The 20-week rolling correlation coefficient rose to 0.13 the previous day after reaching a low of about minus 0.5. If the historical decline repeats, BTC could fall to $34,350. Strategy, which spent $1.57 billion on 22,337 BTC starting March 16, made no further purchases through STRC this week, weakening market support.