Veteran Tech Investor Gavin Baker Sees Amazon Trainium Taking Off in 2026

Atreides Management founder Gavin Baker, an early Nvidia investor, is pursuing a barbell strategy that combines long positions in AI infrastructure with a short position on the broader market. He believes Amazon Web Services’ in-house Trainium chips could reduce its reliance on Nvidia GPUs and have potential comparable to Google’s TPUs. Baker also said TSMC’s cautious capacity expansion could help contain an AI investment bubble. The size of the relevant positions has not been disclosed.

Amazon launched Trainium 3, built on a 3-nanometer process, in December 2025. The company said it delivers up to four times the computing performance and memory bandwidth of its predecessor while improving energy efficiency by 40%. Baker expects shipments and adoption to surge sharply in 2026, arguing that the market is severely underestimating the chip. He also predicts AI services will shift from fixed monthly subscriptions to usage-based pricing, improving provider margins.