Bitcoin Rally Shows Distinct Trading-Hour Pattern

Bitcoin’s realized price represents the average acquisition cost of on-chain holders. The closer the spot price moves to that level, the more it typically indicates that unrealized profits are shrinking and selling pressure is gradually being cleared. CryptoQuant gauges Bitcoin’s position in the market cycle by measuring the spot-price premium over the realized price. Bear-market bottoms have historically involved prices falling below holders’ cost basis and loss-making investors capitulating, making the size of that premium an important signal for identifying a buying zone.

As of July 19, 2026, CryptoQuant data showed Bitcoin’s spot price was only about 21% above its realized price, placing it closer to the “best investment opportunity” zone than at any time in nearly three years. However, on-chain data has yet to show the loss-driven selling typical of a market bottom. To replicate historical capitulation patterns, Bitcoin may need to fall by about another $5,000 and test the $53,600–$54,000 range.

Bitcoin has maintained an upward trend since late February, reflecting a recovery in risk appetite and market momentum. The run has surpassed the longest uptrend recorded during previous bear markets, prompting investors to consider whether Bitcoin has moved beyond a rebound and entered a new bull cycle.

The latest analysis shows Bitcoin's uptrend has extended to a record 90 days. Analyst Matthew Hyland said the move more closely resembles a bull-market rally. A return above $90,000 would be an important signal confirming that the bullish trend has formally resumed.

Bitcoin has not posted an equally strong 28-day return since April 2025. The price has now reclaimed a key trend line, while a market sentiment index has risen to a three-month high. The move is significant because spot buying and derivatives capital are returning in tandem, suggesting the rally is not being driven solely by a short-term squeeze.

Bitcoin climbed as high as $79,472 on Wednesday, approaching the $80,000 threshold and setting a new monthly high. Market data showed simultaneous increases in BTC derivatives open interest and a positioning index, indicating an influx of fresh capital. With the price holding above $77,000, traders continued to add bullish positions.

Bitcoin strengthened despite heightened geopolitical risks, showing that crypto assets were not moving entirely in step with traditional markets such as U.S. stocks and oil. The threat of war between the United States and Iran resurfaced, but investors reacted relatively calmly. Buying was driven mainly by strategic investors and short-term speculators, suggesting market risk appetite had yet to cool significantly.

In the latest trading session, U.S. stocks opened little changed and international oil prices fell, while Bitcoin's daily gain approached 3% as it reclaimed $74,000. The source material did not specify the exact reporting date, exchange or trading volume. The advance against the broader trend suggests that worsening tensions in the Middle East had yet to trigger large-scale safe-haven selling in the crypto market.

10x Research said the rebound was driven mainly by the unwinding of large put-option positions at the $60,000 strike. Market makers were forced to buy Bitcoin to rebalance their exposure, rather than responding to fresh bullish inflows. With no corresponding increase in demand for upside call options, the rally’s staying power remains in doubt.

Bitcoin rose to $75,912 during Asian trading on March 17, 2026, its highest level in six weeks and since February 4, before quickly falling back below $75,000. The CoinDesk 20 Index also slipped to 2,162 from 2,202, while last year’s key support level of $74,400 has now become near-term resistance.

Bitcoin reclaimed the $70,000 level as institutional buying through U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs picked up, bringing some ETF investors close to breakeven. The market views $68,000 as the key medium-term dividing line between bullish and bearish momentum. Whether Bitcoin can hold above it will help determine if the rebound extends into April.

Bitcoin recently traded above $70,000 at one point during the New York session, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $500 million in net inflows in a single day. Around March 11, analysts said that if the weekly close continued to hold above the $68,000 trendline, a break above $72,000 could quickly propel Bitcoin into the major short-liquidation zone at $80,000.

Consecutive daily gains in Bitcoin typically signal buying momentum and are particularly important for assessing the near-term trend. Historical data compiled by Cointelegraph show that Bitcoin has extended its advance roughly 60% of the time after an eight-day winning streak. However, the same pattern also appeared during the 2022 bear market, while halving cycles are often accompanied by significant pullbacks, leaving the market exposed to overheating risks.

Bitcoin closed higher for eight consecutive days starting March 9 and broke above $75,000 during the run, marking its first eight-day winning streak in four years. Despite the latest pullback, the market still considers BTC “overbought,” and the price may consolidate first. Whether it can hold firmly above $75,000 will be key to determining whether the rally continues or the correction deepens.

Bitcoin has historically moved in tandem with U.S. technology stocks, driven by risk appetite and interest-rate expectations, while its safe-haven credentials have often been compared with gold. Their paths are now diverging, suggesting crypto assets may be developing a more independent capital cycle and prompting investors to reassess institutional allocation needs and Bitcoin’s role as an asset.

Bitcoin rose about 8.5% this week and broke above $71,000, marking its best weekly performance since September 2025. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $1.3 billion in net inflows in March 2026, indicating that institutional capital continued to return to crypto despite cautious sentiment across the broader market.

Institutional capital has become a major driver of Bitcoin prices since the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. An easing of U.S. policy uncertainty, along with gains in U.S. stocks and strong corporate earnings, lifted risk appetite and helped Bitcoin reclaim the $68,000 level.

Bitcoin surged from $62,400 to $68,600 over the past 24 hours, gaining about 9.9% and reaching a weekly high. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs ended five consecutive weeks of net outflows and recorded one of their largest inflow days of the quarter in the latest session, bolstering buying demand. Analysts cautioned, however, that the risk of market volatility had not fully receded.