Historical Data Point to US Midterm Years as Key Window for Bitcoin Bottoms

US midterm elections are held every four years and often bring heightened political and policy uncertainty, putting risk assets under pressure. Historical data compiled by Binance Research show that Bitcoin has suffered an average drawdown of as much as 56% in midterm election years, leading markets to view 2026 as a key window for finding the bottom of the current cycle.

Binance Research and market analysts recently said Bitcoin and US stocks could remain driven by liquidity conditions and policy expectations ahead of the 2026 midterms. Once voting ends on November 3 and uncertainty gradually recedes, investors could regain their appetite for risk, potentially fueling a strong Bitcoin rebound by the end of 2026.