Ethereum Falls 35% Against Bitcoin in a Year as Technical Analysis Flags Another 40% Drop

Ethereum is a leading blockchain for smart contracts and decentralized finance, while the price of ETH is also a gauge of risk appetite in the crypto market. Reports on February 24, 2026, showed that U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policies had fueled risk aversion. ETH plunged 38% over 30 days to about $1,830 and fell below the $2,380 realized price calculated by Glassnode.

On June 3, 2026, ETH fell as low as $1,814 on Bitstamp, its lowest level in 14 weeks. SoSoValue data showed that U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs had recorded net outflows for 16 consecutive days, totaling $847.2 million. CryptoQuant's Coinbase Premium Index fell to -0.16 on May 28, reflecting weak U.S. spot demand and signaling that downside risks remain.

Ethereum is one of the largest smart-contract and DeFi ecosystems, and the price of ETH influences both on-chain capital flows and institutional risk appetite. Since April 14, 2026, ETH has largely traded between $2,250 and $2,400. The $2,400 level has rejected rallies five times within a month, making it a key dividing line between bulls and bears.

On May 8, ETH fell more than 5.6% to $2,275 after another rejection at $2,400. Nansen reported that transaction volume fell 10% to 4.79 million, while active addresses declined 8% to 2.5 million. The Coinbase Premium has been negative since April 27, and U.S. spot ETFs recorded net outflows of $103 million on May 7. The chart pattern points to a potential decline toward $1,830.

Ethereum uses a proof-of-stake mechanism, allowing holders to stake ETH with network validators in return for rewards. A higher staking rate removes more tokens from circulation and helps tighten market supply. However, Ethereum’s price performance relative to Bitcoin still depends on capital flows and technical trends.

Ethereum’s staking rate recently climbed to a record 32.33%. Technical analysis, however, indicates that ETH/BTC has formed a bear flag. Analysts estimate that the pair could fall about 10% in May toward 0.026 BTC, suggesting that tighter supply has yet to translate into relative strength.

Ethereum (ETH) is the second-largest crypto asset by market capitalization after Bitcoin, and its price action is often viewed as a key gauge of market risk appetite. An analyst said ETH's recent technical pattern appears to be forming a “bull trap.” Similar signals have previously triggered declines of more than 45%, putting the focus on whether key support can hold.

As of July 20, the analyst warned that a decisive break below support at $1,990 could accelerate selling over the coming weeks and send the price toward the $1,200 region. That would represent a potential decline of nearly 40% from $1,990. This remains a technical-analysis scenario, and whether it materializes depends on a loss of support and subsequent market momentum.

Ethereum is a major crypto asset with substantial leveraged exposure, making it vulnerable to cascading liquidations when its price breaks below key support levels. The US Federal Open Market Committee kept interest rates unchanged on March 18 but raised its inflation outlook, pressuring risk assets. CoinGlass data showed that more than $2.5 billion in ETH long positions across exchanges could be liquidated if the token fell below $2,000.

On March 19, TradingView data showed ETH fell 7% in a single day to a low of $2,140, triggering about $144 million in long liquidations. By March 27, ETH had again fallen below $2,000 to $1,975, down 5% over 24 hours, with more than $111 million in additional long positions liquidated. SoSoValue data showed US spot ETH ETFs had recorded seven consecutive days of net outflows totaling $391.8 million.

Ether (ETH) is the Ethereum network's native asset, and the market closely watches price movements as well as token holdings linked to the Ethereum Foundation and its co-founder. On January 30, Vitalik Buterin announced plans to withdraw and sell 16,384 ETH through Kanro to fund the ecosystem, open-source software and long-term projects. With risk aversion rising, the potential additional supply has created near-term pressure.

On February 23, ETH fell more than 5.6% to about $1,850 and broke below the lower boundary of a bear flag, pointing to a target of $1,475 between late February and early March. Arkham Intelligence tracking showed that Buterin had sold about 9,000 ETH in several batches since the start of February, leaving roughly 7,350 ETH still to be sold. ETH was down 18.55% in February.