Bitcoin Must Begin Post-Quantum Migration Early to Counter Quantum Threat

Bitcoin uses secp256k1 elliptic-curve signatures to secure control of assets. If a large, fault-tolerant quantum computer could use Shor's algorithm to derive private keys from exposed public keys, attackers might be able to forge transactions. Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode said early P2PK, legacy P2MS and modern P2TR outputs all directly expose public keys, potentially making long-dormant assets from the Satoshi era targets.

On May 20, 2026, Glassnode published an analysis classifying 1.92 million BTC, or 9.6% of the supply, as “structurally unsafe,” including P2PK, P2MS and P2TR outputs. The report recommended adopting BIP-360, proposed in December 2024, which uses P2MR to remove Taproot's vulnerable key path. However, the proposal has yet to incorporate post-quantum digital signatures.

Bitcoin uses elliptic-curve digital signatures to secure asset ownership, but a powerful quantum computer could potentially derive private keys from public keys and steal funds. Quantum-security firm Project Eleven says the risk extends beyond Bitcoin to the global financial infrastructure, making migration to post-quantum cryptography an urgent issue.

Project Eleven’s latest report warns that quantum computers could become capable of breaking current cryptography between 2030 and 2033, threatening more than $3 trillion in digital assets. It argues that upgrading the Bitcoin protocol, migrating users and addressing legacy addresses would be time-consuming and costly, and that it may already be too late to begin the transition.

Bitcoin currently relies on ECDSA and Schnorr signatures to secure asset ownership. A sufficiently powerful quantum computer could eventually use Shor’s algorithm to derive private keys from exposed public keys. Although the threat remains confined to laboratory experiments, migrating the network’s wallets, software and users would take considerable time, making early development of quantum-resistant safeguards critical to asset security.

Speaking at Paris Blockchain Week on April 16, 2026, Blockstream CEO Adam Back advocated introducing an optional upgrade first and giving users 10 years to move funds to quantum-resistant addresses. He estimated that a real threat remains at least 20 years away. Blockstream’s research division proposed a hash-based signature scheme in December 2025. The migration could also clarify whether the roughly 500,000 to 1 million Bitcoin attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto can still be moved.