Bitcoin Tests $75,000 as Treasury Yields Rebound, Stocks Slide

US Treasury yields underpin valuations across global markets, and a higher risk-free rate typically raises financing costs while reducing demand for speculative assets. Bitcoin is particularly exposed because it generates no interest, making cash and government debt relatively more attractive when expectations for Federal Reserve tightening increase. The shift can pressure both crypto valuations and the institutional flows that have supported the market.

The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 4.75% as rising oil prices and hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve chair reinforced inflation and tightening concerns. Markets put the probability of a September rate increase at 65.4%, while Barclays and Société Générale revised their forecasts to expect two more hikes this year. Bitcoin spot ETFs also ended a nine-day streak of net inflows, signaling that higher yields are beginning to weaken the cryptocurrency’s funding momentum.

Bitcoin is highly sensitive to shifts in global liquidity and US interest rates because rising Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding risk assets. With government bond yields approaching a 20-year high, remarks from the US Treasury secretary added to uncertainty over the rate outlook, prompting investors to reduce risk ahead of the closely watched month-end close.

Bitcoin traded around $78,000 on Aug. 31, 2026, swinging sharply while remaining confined near that level as traders assessed whether it could preserve key monthly support. Technical analysts flagged a hidden bearish divergence in the relative strength index, or RSI, suggesting that rebound momentum may be weakening. The pattern raised the risk of renewed selling pressure into the monthly close.

Rising US Treasury yields and higher oil prices are tightening financial conditions and reviving inflation concerns, weighing on investors’ appetite for risk. Equities have fallen under the macroeconomic pressure, but Bitcoin’s ability to remain near a closely watched threshold suggests buyers are still providing support. The divergence is notable because the cryptocurrency often trades as a volatile risk asset during broad market selloffs.

Bitcoin held above $64,000 and edged higher in the latest trading updates, even as oil advanced and surging bond yields dragged equities lower. South Korea’s Kospi tumbled as much as 6%, while US stocks extended their decline. The cryptocurrency’s resilience amid the cross-asset retreat highlighted its relative strength, though continued pressure from yields, energy prices and weaker equity sentiment remains a key test for demand.

The 30-year US Treasury yield is a key benchmark for long-term borrowing and global asset valuations, influencing mortgages, corporate financing and investors’ required returns. Its rise toward levels last seen before the global financial crisis increases the appeal of risk-free government debt and raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin, tightening financial conditions and weighing on risk appetite.

The 30-year yield climbed above 5.2%, its highest level since 2007 and a near 19-year peak. Pressure intensified after three Federal Reserve officials made an unusually coordinated case for higher interest rates, reinforcing expectations that policy could remain restrictive or tighten further. The combination of a Treasury selloff and hawkish Fed signals pushed Bitcoin below the $80,000 threshold as investors cut exposure to risk assets.

As a non-yielding asset, Bitcoin is particularly sensitive to interest rates, the dollar and market liquidity. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments about persistent inflation briefly spurred demand for safe-haven assets. But rising Treasury yields, strong earnings from AI technology stocks and continued outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs redirected capital toward fixed-income and equity markets.

A July 2 report showed Bitcoin climbing back above $60,000 on Wednesday, though it remained 53% below its all-time high. The five-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.22%, while CME FedWatch put the probability of a rate increase by September 16 at 64%, up from 23% a month earlier. With the dollar index closing in on a one-year high, the market increasingly viewed a near-term advance to $65,000 as more difficult.