Goldman Sachs Raises U.S. Recession Probability to 30%, Sees Rate Cuts Supporting Bitcoin

Federal Reserve policy expectations are a major driver of the dollar, Treasury yields and valuations across risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Goldman Sachs economists said softer US economic data had sharply reduced the case for another increase in borrowing costs. Removing the threat of renewed tightening could ease financial conditions and provide support for Bitcoin, which has struggled to break out of a trading range.

Goldman Sachs said a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase at its September meeting was “very unlikely,” shifting attention from further tightening toward the timing of eventual policy easing. The outlook helped improve risk sentiment and lifted Bitcoin back toward $63,500. A sustained breakout, however, will depend on incoming US economic data and whether Fed officials reinforce expectations that rates have peaked.

If the U.S. economy falls into recession in 2026, corporate earnings, employment and risk assets could all come under pressure. Bitcoin would face a dual test of its status as both a potential safe-haven asset and a highly volatile investment. Markets are particularly focused on whether higher oil prices will fuel inflation and limit room for interest-rate cuts, potentially triggering a repeat of March 2020, when Bitcoin initially plunged during the pandemic shock before rebounding.

Moody’s Analytics recently raised the probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months to 48.6%, closing in on 50%. Goldman Sachs also increased its forecast, although the report did not provide the revised figure. Investors are reassessing the economic risks facing 2026 and watching whether Bitcoin can replicate its post-crash recovery of 2020 as oil-price pressures mount and risk assets weaken.