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Event File CRYPTO Bitcoin Federal Reserve (Fed)

Bitcoin Nears $65,000 as Softer Inflation Quells Fed Hike Fears

1 reports · First detected 2026-07-31 · Last active 2026-07-31

Bitcoin pays no income, so its opportunity cost rises when US government bonds offer attractive yields. Institutions have often offset price risk by buying spot bitcoin and selling futures, earning the spread through a cash-and-carry trade. That comparison now matters more: Treasury yields have topped the strategy’s return for only the second time on record, while spot turnover remains near multiyear lows, pointing to a rally supported more by shifting rate expectations than broad trading demand.

Bitcoin pushed toward $65,000 on Thursday, July 16, extending gains after US inflation data cooled and reduced pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates. June headline CPI slowed to 3.5% from 4.2%, while core inflation eased to 2.6% from 2.9%. Market-implied odds of a near-term Fed increase fell to 13% from 43%, and the two-year Treasury yield dropped six basis points. Bitcoin had climbed 3.6% to about $64,800 on Wednesday, with roughly $31 billion changing hands.

All Coverage

1 original reports
THEBLOCK.CO 2026-07-30
‘Paid to wait’: Bitcoin presses toward $65,000 as Treasuries out-yield the carry trade for only second time on record

The Backstory

The history behind this event
Bitcoin Breaks Above $60,000, but Inflation and Treasury Yields Weigh on Further Gains2026-07-02 · 1 reports · similarity 0.82

As a non-yielding asset, Bitcoin is particularly sensitive to interest rates, the dollar and market liquidity. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments about persistent inflation briefly spurred demand for safe-haven assets. But rising Treasury yields, strong earnings from AI technology stocks and continued outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs redirected capital toward fixed-income and equity markets.

A July 2 report showed Bitcoin climbing back above $60,000 on Wednesday, though it remained 53% below its all-time high. The five-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.22%, while CME FedWatch put the probability of a rate increase by September 16 at 64%, up from 23% a month earlier. With the dollar index closing in on a one-year high, the market increasingly viewed a near-term advance to $65,000 as more difficult.

Bitcoin Rally Falters Ahead of Fed Rate Decision as Markets Await Powell's Inflation Remarks2026-03-18 · 13 reports · similarity 0.82

Bitcoin is highly sensitive to expectations for U.S. interest rates and liquidity, while Federal Reserve rate decisions often drive crypto-asset valuations. Markets are now focused on how Chair Jerome Powell will assess changes in inflation and oil prices. His remarks could shape expectations for rate cuts and determine whether capital continues flowing into risk assets.

Bitcoin briefly touched $76,000 ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's April 29 decision before retreating to around $74,000, including a short-lived intraday drop below $75,000. Ether, meanwhile, approached $2,200. Traders turned cautious and watched for signs of a hawkish tilt in Powell's post-meeting comments.

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