BIS Warns of Overheated AI Investment and Global Sovereign Debt Risks

The artificial-intelligence investment boom is reshaping both sides of the global economy. Spending on data centers, advanced chips and cloud infrastructure is lifting demand, trade and asset prices, while eventual productivity gains could expand supply and restrain inflation. The Bank for International Settlements said those forces differ in timing and across countries, obscuring conventional signals such as economic slack, the natural interest rate and underlying price pressure. That uncertainty matters because central banks set policy against estimates that cannot be observed directly.

In BIS Bulletin No. 130, published July 28, 2026, the institution said data-center and related IT investment had risen to 0.8% of GDP in the United States and more than 1% in Australia. Industry estimates put global AI-related investment at about $500 billion today, potentially reaching $3 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030. The BIS warned that overestimating supply gains or underestimating demand could leave policy too loose, while the opposite error could produce unnecessarily restrictive conditions; it favored a gradual, data-dependent approach.