U.S. Intelligence Says Iran Retains Two-Thirds of Missile Stockpile as Middle East Tensions Weigh on Crypto

The United States launched a fresh wave of airstrikes against Iranian military targets, while Trump said US forces would intensify their attacks, rapidly raising the risk of further escalation in the Middle East. Crypto assets have long been sensitive to global liquidity and risk-off sentiment, and the selloff reflected investors shifting toward relatively safer assets such as the US dollar.

After news of the airstrikes emerged on July 19, the crypto market lost about $80 billion within 24 hours, pushing its total market capitalization to its lowest level since mid-April. Bitcoin fell below $73,000, while Ether dropped below $1,970. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps later said it had launched airstrikes against US forces, further intensifying market panic.

U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and steel plants, followed by Iranian retaliation against several Persian Gulf countries, have escalated the Middle East conflict into a risk for global energy and financial markets. With U.S. equities and other traditional markets closed over the weekend, round-the-clock Bitcoin trading became a key real-time gauge of investors’ flight to safety, capital withdrawals and broader risk sentiment.

Bitcoin fell about 3% at one point over the weekend and dropped below $63,000 after the conflict entered its third day. It had briefly recovered to $68,000 following news of Iran’s supreme leader’s death, but weakened again as U.S. and Israeli airstrikes continued, Iran retaliated and South Korean stocks tumbled. Brent crude surged to $106 a barrel, while oil-linked futures on Hyperliquid rose 5%.

Iran's large-scale attacks on Israel and U.S. military bases in the Middle East have spilled over into energy and financial markets. Uncertainty has risen over oil supplies, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. military involvement. For Bitcoin, a flight to the U.S. dollar and gold could weaken near-term price support.

Oil prices briefly jumped about 3% after the latest missile strikes, while Bitcoin fell to around $66,000 at one point. Analysts warned that the cryptocurrency could continue sliding toward the psychologically important $60,000 level if the dollar climbs to its highest since April 2025 and the conflict delays interest-rate cuts, as three Federal Reserve officials have warned.

The United States and Iran have sought to ease the conflict through a ceasefire and peace talks, but Tehran’s nuclear program and arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz remain the main sticking points. Iran accused the United States and Israel of violating three ceasefire terms, leaving the agreement close to collapse less than 48 hours after it was signed. Renewed fighting could drive up energy prices and weigh on risk assets including bitcoin.

A second round of talks, initially expected around April 10, was at one point reported to be planned for Islamabad, Pakistan. Iran later announced a complete boycott, accusing the United States of acting in bad faith and saying the talks had become meaningless. As the ceasefire outlook rapidly deteriorated, bitcoin tumbled about 2%, falling below $72,000 and then $71,000 to hit a nearly seven-week low.

U.S. President Donald Trump warned that the United States was prepared to bomb Iran, citing suspected covert transfers of Iranian missiles and the U.S. seizure of a vessel carrying Chinese materials. An escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could drive up oil and safe-haven asset prices while putting selling pressure on highly volatile risk assets such as Bitcoin.

Trump recently said the "clock is ticking" for action against Iran and rejected a proposal from Tehran. Iran's air-defense systems were subsequently reported to have intercepted hostile targets. U.S. crude futures briefly surged by $5 on the news, while Bitcoin fell below $76,000 and Ethereum dropped under $2,300. Crypto-related stocks including Coinbase and Robinhood also declined.

Tensions between the United States and Iran over Tehran’s nuclear program and regional security have escalated again, clouding negotiations after markets had expected the two sides to reach a peace agreement. Because Bitcoin trades around the clock and leveraged positions are concentrated, geopolitical developments often trigger rapid risk-off selling and cascading liquidations.

CCTV cited sources on July 20 as saying the United States could resume military strikes against Iran as soon as next week. Options include bombing infrastructure or deploying special forces on the ground to seize nuclear material. Bitcoin briefly fell below $79,000 after the report and faced pressure from both long and short liquidations near $77,000.

Bitcoin's deep liquidity and round-the-clock trading mean it is often among the first assets to reflect shifts in global risk appetite following news of war or sanctions. Iran's claim that its missiles struck U.S. military targets fueled concerns about an escalation in the Middle East and disruptions to energy supplies. The absence of circuit breakers in crypto markets and high leverage amplified the short-term decline and cascade of liquidations.

On May 4, Bitcoin briefly rose above $80,000 before rapidly falling to $78,196 after Iran said its missiles had hit U.S. military targets. It later recovered to about $79,000, while ETH, SOL and DOGE also fell sharply. Liquidations across the market reached $453 million over 24 hours, affecting more than 100,000 investors, with long positions bearing the brunt of liquidations within a four-hour period.

The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran is affecting global energy supplies, inflation and risk-aversion across financial markets. The Israeli Defense Ministry’s expanded military operations could drive oil prices higher and complicate Federal Reserve policymaking. Although Bitcoin is often seen as a digital safe-haven asset, it remains vulnerable to sharp short-term losses as investors reduce risk exposure.

Israel’s defense minister most recently announced plans to further broaden and intensify strikes on Iran, warning that Tehran would pay a heavy price if it continued launching missiles. The announcement heightened market turmoil and sent Bitcoin below $68,000. Federal Reserve officials have also warned that inflationary and economic risks stemming from the war could force a shift in monetary policy.

US Treasuries have long been regarded as a core safe-haven asset in the global financial system, with governments, central banks and financial institutions among their major holders. By linking Treasury purchases to support for US military action, Iran has politicized financial investment and prompted markets to reassess the ability of both Treasuries and Bitcoin to provide protection against wartime risks.

Iran’s parliament speaker recently warned that holders of US Treasuries could be designated as targets for military strikes. The warning pushed the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield above 4.4%, close to its highest level since August. Geopolitical risks also triggered a broader asset selloff, with Bitcoin falling below $104,000 and failing to decouple from traditional risk assets.

Israel's Dimona nuclear research center is regarded as the heart of the country's nuclear program. Attacks in its vicinity have intensified concerns about the cycle of retaliation between Israel and Iran, as well as the risk of radioactive material being released. The geopolitical fallout quickly spread to global financial markets, with cryptocurrencies reflecting investors' flight to safety first because of their round-the-clock trading and high volatility.

Iran bombed the vicinity of the Dimona nuclear research center for the first time on March 21. No nuclear leak has been reported so far, but fears of further Israeli retaliation have heightened risks to both the Middle East and energy supplies. The crypto market briefly fell into extreme fear, while Bitcoin rebounded to about $69,000 after a sharp drop. Its outlook remains dependent on whether the military conflict continues to escalate.