Bitcoin’s Bullish Seasonality Points to Possible May Rebound After April Consolidation

CoinDesk data dating to 2013 show that bitcoin rose in seven of the past 13 Mays, delivering an average return of about 8%. The S&P 500 also tends to perform strongly in May, drawing attention to whether April’s gains can continue. The signal matters because bitcoin is increasingly influenced not only by its own cycle but also by institutional ETF flows and broader liquidity conditions.

As of April 30, 2026, bitcoin had gained about 10% in April but failed to hold above $78,000, retreating to around $75,000. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded more than $1.8 billion in net inflows during April, following $1.32 billion in March. Nansen analyst Jake Kennis expects range-bound trading in the near term. A rise in the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield to 5%, the conflict in Iran and the energy shock could still weigh on risk assets in May.