VanEck Says Bitcoin May Bottom Between September and November

Bitcoin has been correcting for nearly 11 months, prompting investors to assess whether forced selling and bearish sentiment are nearing exhaustion. VanEck tracks 12 capitulation indicators designed to identify periods of extreme pessimism that have historically appeared around major market lows. Such signals do not establish that a bottom is already in place, but the firm says spot Bitcoin ETFs and greater institutional participation could make this drawdown less severe than in previous cycles.

VanEck said eight of its 12 capitulation indicators have now been triggered, suggesting the correction may be entering its final phase even though a definitive bottom has not formed. Based on historical cycle patterns, the asset manager expects Bitcoin could establish a floor between September and November 2026. The timing remains an estimate, with confirmation dependent on additional indicators flashing, selling pressure easing and flows through spot Bitcoin ETFs and other institutional channels remaining supportive.