Ray Dalio Assesses Strait of Hormuz Crisis’s Impact on U.S. Hegemony and Dollar’s Reserve Status

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio views the Strait of Hormuz as pivotal to the United States’ ability to uphold its global security commitments and the dollar’s status as a reserve currency. The waterway connects Persian Gulf energy exports to global markets. If the United States cannot safeguard navigation through it, markets could reassess U.S. military credibility, its commitments to allies and the safety of dollar-denominated assets.

Two recent reports focus on Dalio’s assessment of the Trump administration and the risks posed by the war with Iran. He argues that losing control of the strait could mark a turning point in the erosion of U.S. hegemony and drive capital toward gold and Bitcoin. The available event data do not include the reports’ dates, any capital amounts or the strait’s shipping volumes, so these effects remain scenario-based projections rather than outcomes that have already occurred.