Kalshi Outlines Settlement for Disputed Market on Khamenei’s Death

Kalshi, a prediction market regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, recorded about $54 million in trading volume for its contract on whether Khamenei would cease to be supreme leader. The dispute centers on traders treating death as leaving office, while the platform invoked a “death carveout” to prevent users from profiting from a death. Whether that rule was adequately disclosed has come under scrutiny.

After Khamenei died on February 28, 2026, Kalshi halted trading and settled the market at the last traded price before his death was confirmed, instead of paying $1 for each “Yes” contract. Co-founder Tarek Mansour announced on March 1 that all fees from the market would be refunded. Traders later sued, filing a proposed class action in the U.S. District Court for the Central District of California on March 5.