Prediction Markets

Prediction markets allow participants to trade contracts that express probability judgments about the outcomes of sporting, political, financial and popular-culture events. The World Cup has recently driven higher trading volumes on Polymarket and Kalshi, while ChatGPT has begun integrating related data. On the regulatory front, France and the Czech Republic have blocked Polymarket, disputes involving U.S. regulators and courts continue, and risks related to insider trading and settlement manipulation are drawing scrutiny. Market size, use cases and regulatory boundaries are all evolving, making prediction markets a topic worth watching closely.