Prediction Markets
+ FollowPrediction markets allow participants to trade contracts that express probability judgments about the outcomes of sporting, political, financial and popular-culture events. The World Cup has recently driven higher trading volumes on Polymarket and Kalshi, while ChatGPT has begun integrating related data. On the regulatory front, France and the Czech Republic have blocked Polymarket, disputes involving U.S. regulators and courts continue, and risks related to insider trading and settlement manipulation are drawing scrutiny. Market size, use cases and regulatory boundaries are all evolving, making prediction markets a topic worth watching closely.
Key Moments
15 selectedThe full history is split into 15 equal periods by event count, taking the most-covered story from each. Coverage rises and falls with the news cycle, so sampling period by period keeps the most recent events from taking everything.
- 2026-08-29 Ninth Circuit Backs Nevada in Kalshi Prediction-Market Fight 7 reports
- 2026-08-12 CFTC Invokes Emergency Powers to Keep Kalshi Operating Amid New York Suit 10 reports
- 2026-07-31 New York Sues Kalshi, Seeks at Least $36 Billion 10 reports
- 2026-07-28 Judge Blocks Minnesota Prediction Market Ban, Handing Polymarket Win 6 reports
- 2026-07-18 Polymarket Plans Legal Challenge to France’s Nationwide Block 9 reports
- 10 more key moments Sign up to see the full context
Event Timeline
329 core events77 peripheral mentions — events mainly about something else
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