Bitcoin Falls Below Key $70,000 Resistance, Analysts Say Bear Market Is Not Over Yet

Bitcoin has rebounded since falling to its 2026 low of about $60,000 in February, but the market has yet to confirm whether the bear-market bottom is in. The $70,000 level is both a psychological threshold and close to a recent line of support from buyers; a break below it could alter the structure of the rebound. Veteran trader Peter Brandt warned in March that the low could move lower, underscoring divided views on where the cycle will bottom.

Citing CoinMarketCap, Cointelegraph reported on May 30 that Bitcoin was trading at $73,873. MN Trading Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe said a break below $70,000 could send it under $65,000, while holding that level could pave the way for a move above $76,000. He does not expect Bitcoin to set a new low for the year.

Bitcoin retested the $75,000 support zone after failing to clear $78,000, prompting renewed scrutiny of whether earlier bear-market signals are resurfacing. The $75,000–$76,000 range is seen as the near-term dividing line between bulls and bears. A breakdown could weaken investor confidence that the rebound in crypto assets can continue.

Bitcoin failed to break above $78,000 on Tuesday and is now hovering near $75,000. Analyst Tom Lee said the risk of a bear market could rise if Bitcoin remains unable to hold above $76,000 by the end of this month. AI-related tokens RENDER and FET also retreated, while only Hyperliquid and Monero advanced against the broader trend.

The 11 U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have become an important gateway for institutional capital entering the crypto market, and their flows are also viewed as an indicator of price support. ETF redemptions, aggressive selling in spot and futures markets, and demand for options hedges are now rising in tandem, suggesting the correction may be more than a pullback after a rally.

Bitcoin fell about 6% from $82,000 to $76,800 and dropped below $77,000 again on May 22. SoSoValue data showed that the 11 ETFs had recorded more than $1.5 billion in outflows since May 7, including $648 million on May 18 alone. Glassnode said spot cumulative volume delta, or CVD, had fallen to negative $126.2 million, with key support at $74,000–$76,000.

Glassnode defines the True Market Mean as the average acquisition cost of actively circulating Bitcoin, while the Short-Term Holder Realized Price reflects the cost basis of investors who have held the asset for less than 155 days. The metrics stand at about $78,000 and $79,200, respectively, and are important gauges of bullish and bearish market conditions. Falling below them could intensify selling by underwater investors and increase the risk of consolidation.

Bitcoin reversed course after breaking above $79,200 on April 22 and fell as low as $77,686. It remained capped below $80,000 as of May 21. Capriole Investments data showed Apparent Demand falling to negative 3,138 BTC, a four-month low, while Glassnode updated the True Market Mean to $78,300. Analysts warned that Bitcoin could fall to $65,000 if it fails to reclaim $78,000.

Bitcoin has rebounded 17% after falling below $60,000, indicating stronger buying support at lower levels. Glassnode's on-chain data and demand in derivatives markets both point to a gradual return of buyers, but the broader price structure remains in a downtrend. That makes $78,000 a crucial threshold for determining whether bulls can genuinely turn the market around.

As of April 22, the market was focused on the $78,000–$79,200 resistance zone. Glassnode said BTC must reclaim its moving average at about $78,300 and that consolidation could continue for several weeks. Analysts said a break above $78,000 could confirm a reversal, though $79,200 could still serve either as a launchpad for further gains or as renewed resistance.

Bitcoin rebounded sharply over six weeks after falling to $66,000 in early April 2026, but the 200-day moving average remains a key dividing line in determining whether the bear market will continue. TradingShot noted that Bitcoin hit a fresh low after failing to break above the trend line from below in 2022, making the latest test critical to whether the market can reverse its medium-term weakness.

On May 6, TradingShot identified $84,000 as the most critical level for bulls to reclaim, warning that failure to break through could extend the bear market and send Bitcoin toward $50,000. On May 14, CryptoQuant put the 200-day moving average at about $82,400. Bitcoin subsequently retreated to around $79,300, while investors had already realized profits on 14,600 BTC worth nearly $1.2 billion on May 4, signaling mounting selling pressure.

Bitcoin has been correcting for about five months since retreating from its record high of $126,000 in October 2025. Although the market regards it as a scarce asset, its 50-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 remains at 84%. Cointelegraph said that if spot ETF flows are merely following Bitcoin's price, the rebound is not enough to prove the bear market has ended.

Bitcoin briefly climbed above $73,000 and approached $74,000 by March 14, 2026. The U.S. Commerce Department said on March 13 that the economy grew just 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025. CoinGlass data showed spot ETFs recorded $583 million in net inflows over four consecutive days, while a separate analyst estimate put the amount accumulated by Strategy through its STRC instrument at more than $900 million.

Bitcoin posted monthly losses for five consecutive months after retreating from its previous high, putting the focus on whether March could end the rare losing streak. Technical analysis compiled by Cointelegraph identified $68,330–$70,000 as the main resistance zone, while the 200-week moving average was seen as the key dividing line for the medium- to long-term outlook.

Bitcoin held on to its monthly gain on March 31, ending the five-month losing streak, but selling pressure around $70,000 continued to limit upside. In April, the market is watching whether Bitcoin can hold above its 200-week moving average. Analysts expect a decisive break above $70,000 could set up a test of $80,000 in the next phase.

Following Bitcoin’s retreat from its previous peak, most medium-term holders are sitting on unrealized losses, making a dense cost-basis zone an important threshold for identifying a trend reversal. CryptoQuant on-chain data show that holders who have owned BTC for six months to two years have an average cost basis of about $74,500. A move back above that level could ease selling pressure from investors seeking to break even and revive market demand.

Cointelegraph reported on Feb. 26, 2026, that BTC had rebounded 7.45% over two days after falling to $62,400, while support at the roughly $64,200 realized price for 18- to 24-month holders had held for the time being. CoinDesk reported on March 24 that BTC was trading at about $71,238. FxPro said the cryptocurrency would still need to hold above $75,000 to confirm that the decline was over.

Bitcoin remains under bear-market pressure, though 10x Research says its decline is gradually slowing. Stronger ETF inflows, compressed volatility and easing selling pressure suggest near-term momentum is beginning to stabilize. Those signals, however, are not yet sufficient to demonstrate a structural reversal, leaving investors exposed to further declines.

As of July 20, 2026, 10x Research identified $62,500 as a key support level for Bitcoin. Holding above it could lay the groundwork for a subsequent rebound. Analysts said several recent indicators have improved, but Bitcoin has not yet formally broken out of its bear-market structure and needs further confirmation from price action and fund flows.