Bitcoin Falls Below $77,000 as Data Signal Selling Pressure Could Worsen

Bitcoin, the world’s leading cryptocurrency, is widely viewed as a barometer for risk assets. A recent escalation in geopolitical conflict has pushed oil prices higher, while stress in Japan’s bond market and the prospect of selling by Strategy have heightened investor concerns about a renewed global regulatory crackdown. Together, these headwinds have put Bitcoin at risk of retesting a key psychological threshold. Whether that support holds will be an important signal for the broader digital asset market.

Geopolitical risks weighed on risk assets after former US President Donald Trump warned in mid-July that the United States would forcibly operate the blocked Strait of Hormuz. Bitcoin briefly fell below $62,000 on July 15 before testing support at $60,000. The latest data, however, showed signs that panic selling was stabilizing on July 16 as sellers’ profit margins fell to zero. The market is now watching closely to see whether Bitcoin can hold the $60,000 level.

Bitcoin is highly sensitive to interest rates and risk appetite. Conflict in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz crisis have driven up oil prices and inflation concerns, while rising U.S. Treasury yields have pushed capital toward safe-haven assets such as the dollar. The latest decline has also affected liquidity across the broader cryptocurrency market.

As of July 19, Bitcoin had fallen about 3% over 24 hours, dropping below $67,000 and touching a two-week low. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield approached 4.5%, near a one-year high, while about $300 million in long positions were liquidated. Core Scientific separately sold $175 million worth of Bitcoin and plans to redirect the proceeds into AI data centers and high-performance computing operations.

Bitcoin has recently faced the dual pressures of spot-market selling and an escalation in the US-Iran military conflict, with Brent crude briefly rising to $95 a barrel. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded $3.46 billion in net outflows since May 13, signaling capital flight from the crypto market and increasing the risk of cascading liquidations of leveraged positions.

On June 1, Bitcoin fell below $71,000 for the first time in seven weeks, liquidating about $276 million in leveraged long positions. However, the long-to-short ratio among Binance whales rose to 1.4 from 1.1 a week earlier, while the ratio on OKX climbed to 1.9 on Monday. Futures open interest across major exchanges held at $43.5 billion, suggesting professional traders were adding bullish positions on the dip, although a rebound still depends on an easing of spot-market selling pressure.

Bitcoin fell below $75,000 as bullish derivatives positioning remained elevated and spot demand weakened, pushing the market into a short-term cooldown. On-chain “active distribution” indicates that holders are shifting toward selling. When exchange inflows rise as price discounts widen, correction risk typically increases. Long-term holders, however, have not retreated significantly, potentially providing market support.

Bitcoin fell as low as $72,500 on May 27. The Coinbase premium gap dropped to minus $94.95, a negative deviation of 1,083% from its three-month average. Binance’s seven-day average net inflow reached 1,496 BTC, up 528% from its three-month average, while crypto liquidations totaled $935 million that day. Long-term holders still controlled 84.3% of circulating supply, suggesting that some investors may be buying the dip.

Bitcoin failed to break above $80,000, shifting the market’s focus to support at $75,000. Repeated profit-taking near $77,000 points to insufficient spot demand. Short covering has lifted prices but has not generated enough momentum for a sustained breakout.

As of July 19, Bitcoin was trading mainly between $77,500 and $78,500, most recently at about $77,700. Open interest in the derivatives market fell by more than 6%, indicating that traders were actively reducing leverage. Volatility also cooled after the wave of liquidations, while analysts are watching whether $75,000 support can hold.

Bitcoin is widely viewed as a gauge of global risk appetite, while the area around $77,000 also overlaps with the cost basis of short-term holders. Whether it can sustain a breakout has implications for spot ETFs, derivatives and onchain positioning. Checkonchain said more than 15% of the circulating supply was acquired between $74,000 and $83,000, making pullback risk a particular concern around this dense zone of underwater holdings.

Bitcoin briefly approached $77,500 on May 1. Open interest in Deribit put options with a $76,000 strike and a June 26 expiry rose 22.5%. Santiment data also showed that more than $770 million in BTC flowed onto exchanges during the previous week. By May 25, weekly net inflows stood at about 18,000 BTC, leaving the rebound exposed to potential selling pressure.

Bitcoin is highly sensitive to interest rates and dollar liquidity. When US Treasury yields rise, non-yielding assets become relatively less attractive to hold. The latest decline coincided with losses in stocks and gold, reflecting traders’ reassessment of the Federal Reserve’s rate-hike path amid inflation concerns. The move was therefore not confined to the crypto market.

Around May 15, Bitcoin fell about 3% in a single day, breaking below $79,000 and touching $78,000 before sliding below $77,000 to a low of about $76,000. Liquidations of bullish crypto positions reached $500 million, while SOL and XRP each dropped about 5%. US Treasury yields neared 20-year highs, although Bitcoin’s implied volatility remained low.

Bitcoin entered a correction after hitting an all-time high of $126,200 on Oct. 6, 2025, and briefly fell to a 15-month low in early February 2026, marking a maximum drawdown of about 53%. Glassnode data has yet to show a clear reversal signal. Rekt Capital said the current bear market has lasted only about 140 days, shorter than the briefest historical cycle of 365 days.

Bitcoin rebounded to as high as $70,040 on Feb. 25 but failed to hold above the 200-week exponential moving average, or EMA, and its 2021 peak. It fell more than 1% intraday after U.S. stocks opened on Feb. 26, putting $67,000 back in focus. TradingView data showed the price had slipped below the key zone again. Rekt Capital said the 200-week EMA had turned into resistance, leaving Bitcoin at risk of further declines until it breaks above that level.

Bitcoin and risk assets such as U.S. stocks are highly sensitive to the outlook for U.S. interest rates. A hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index from the U.S. Labor Department pushed back market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Persistent bond-market concerns over inflation and broader economic risks drove capital toward safe-haven assets such as gold, putting cryptocurrencies under selling pressure.

Bitcoin initially fell to about $65,000 in a weekend sell-off, while Solana, XRP and Dogecoin each dropped about 6%. Although Bitcoin and U.S. stocks briefly stabilized afterward, the cryptocurrency failed to hold above $66,000. Market analysis remained cautious on March 27, with Bitcoin holders' unrealized losses estimated at $600 billion. Only some AI-related tokens continued to attract buying interest.

Bitcoin has long been viewed by some investors as inflation-resistant “digital gold,” but its recent performance has more closely resembled that of a volatile risk asset. Its price has moved closely in line with software-stock benchmarks such as the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV), suggesting that selling pressure in U.S. technology shares and private equity markets is spilling into cryptocurrencies.

During U.S. trading on Monday, July 13, Bitcoin briefly rebounded above $65,000, but the rally failed to hold. It retreated to about $65,400 as the broader stock market and software shares declined. Polymarket showed the probability of Bitcoin falling below $55,000 had risen to 72%, reflecting weakening confidence among holders and increased downside risk.