Familiar Bitcoin Price Pattern Fuels Speculation of a Drop

After Bitcoin began trading at $0.003 in February 2010, its four bull markets peaked in 2011, 2013, 2017 and 2021. Each subsequent bear market took the price below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the preceding rally. Although the pattern held in all four cycles, the sample is limited to four, and a technical indicator is not a price prediction.

CoinDesk reported on June 14, 2026, that Bitcoin was trading at about $64,000 after reaching a record above $126,000 in October 2025. Using the same calculation, the 61.8% retracement level would be $48,215, implying a further decline of about 25%. However, spot ETFs, institutional capital and derivatives have changed the market's structure and could provide support before Bitcoin reaches that level.

Bitcoin last week endured its sharpest weekly swings in months as the price came under concentrated selling pressure. The Bitcoin Volatility Index (BVIV), a gauge of expected market volatility, offers a measure of hedging demand. Its decline signals easing investor anxiety and may help indicate whether the crypto market is regaining stability.

The latest trading showed Bitcoin stabilizing above $63,000, while BVIV fell to 47% from 60% as the market gradually absorbed last week's selling pressure. A rebound in AI stocks improved risk appetite, helping BNB and Solana (SOL) edge higher, though some market data still pointed to potential pressure ahead for bulls.

Bitcoin has remained under pressure amid threats from U.S. tariff policy and a broader selloff in risk assets. Because BTC is widely viewed as a gauge of risk appetite in crypto markets, its sharp decline has weighed on the sector and prompted investors to seek refuge in stablecoins, rapidly worsening market sentiment.

As of Feb. 23, 2026, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index had fallen to 5, placing it in the “extreme fear” zone. Polymarket traders put the probability of BTC falling below $55,000 at 72%, up from the 66%–70% shown in related reports, signaling expectations that the selloff could continue.

Alternative.me’s Crypto Fear & Greed Index gauges risk appetite in the crypto market using volatility, trading volume and market sentiment. Bitcoin’s decline has pushed fear into extreme territory. Historically, a bottom in sentiment that coincides with long-term Power Law support has often been viewed as an important signal that prices may be stabilizing.

Bitcoin most recently fell below $67,000, while the Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 11, entering “extreme fear” territory and reaching its lowest level since early April 2025. Market analysts say “max fear” could foreshadow a rebound. If risk appetite recovers, Bitcoin may have a chance to catch up with U.S. stocks, which recently hit record highs.

The 11 U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have become an important gateway for institutional capital entering the crypto market, and their flows are also viewed as an indicator of price support. ETF redemptions, aggressive selling in spot and futures markets, and demand for options hedges are now rising in tandem, suggesting the correction may be more than a pullback after a rally.

Bitcoin fell about 6% from $82,000 to $76,800 and dropped below $77,000 again on May 22. SoSoValue data showed that the 11 ETFs had recorded more than $1.5 billion in outflows since May 7, including $648 million on May 18 alone. Glassnode said spot cumulative volume delta, or CVD, had fallen to negative $126.2 million, with key support at $74,000–$76,000.

CoinDesk analysis found that Bitcoin formed a narrow ascending channel between November 20, 2025, and January 20, 2026, before breaking below support and plunging from about $90,000. It came close to $60,000 at its February 6 low. The current rebound is showing a similar structure, suggesting limited buying on dips. Whether Bitcoin can hold the channel’s lower boundary will be critical in determining if bearish selling pressure intensifies.

Bitcoin consolidated near $67,000 on April 5 as its four-hour Bollinger Bands narrowed. Trader LP said a decline to $60,000 was only a matter of time. Material Indicators co-founder Keith Alan said a TWAP bot on Binance sold $18 million in one hour, far above its usual daily volume of $3 million to $5 million.

Bitcoin and risk assets such as U.S. stocks are highly sensitive to the outlook for U.S. interest rates. A hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index from the U.S. Labor Department pushed back market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Persistent bond-market concerns over inflation and broader economic risks drove capital toward safe-haven assets such as gold, putting cryptocurrencies under selling pressure.

Bitcoin initially fell to about $65,000 in a weekend sell-off, while Solana, XRP and Dogecoin each dropped about 6%. Although Bitcoin and U.S. stocks briefly stabilized afterward, the cryptocurrency failed to hold above $66,000. Market analysis remained cautious on March 27, with Bitcoin holders' unrealized losses estimated at $600 billion. Only some AI-related tokens continued to attract buying interest.

Bitcoin reached a high of about $69,000 in November 2021, and the market has long viewed the previous bull-cycle peak as key support in a new cycle. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved spot Bitcoin ETFs on Jan. 10, 2024. The arrival of institutional capital from BlackRock, Fidelity and others has intensified scrutiny over whether Bitcoin’s price cycles can sustain their parabolic gains.

Bitcoin recently fell to about $70,000, retesting its 2021 high and challenging the perception that former peaks are unlikely to be revisited during a bull market. The 2017 high of about $20,000 was more than 17 times the previous cycle’s peak of roughly $1,100, while the 2021 high was only about 3.5 times the preceding peak. Analysts say that as the market grows, increasingly large inflows are needed to drive prices higher, potentially leading to continued declines in returns across cycles.

A “death cross” is a technical signal that occurs when the 50-period moving average falls below the 200-period average. TradingView’s three-day chart shows that similar patterns appeared during the late stages of the 2014, 2018 and 2022 bear markets. In 2018, Bitcoin fell from $6,000 to below $4,500 within a week, while in 2022 it slid from $32,000 to $17,500. The pattern is therefore viewed as a warning that losses could deepen.

Cointelegraph reported on March 3, 2026, that Bitcoin’s three-day chart had formed its first death cross since June 2022. As of March 2026, the price was down about 50% from its record high of $126,270 five months earlier. Bitcoin fell by an average of 35% in the month after the previous three signals, though U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs still recorded $458.2 million in net inflows on Monday, pointing to both dip-buying demand and continued downside risk.

Bitcoin's loss of long-term support suggests crypto assets could face a deeper correction. A “fair value gap” is a low-liquidity zone created after a sharp price move that markets often retrace to fill. Cointelegraph cited Rekt Capital as saying the 200-week EMA had flipped from support into potential resistance, affecting confidence across risk assets.

On February 24, 2026, TradingView data showed Bitcoin approaching $60,000 after falling nearly 3% on the day, while gold dropped 2% to $5,140 an ounce. The Kobeissi Letter said U.S. stocks had shed $800 billion in market value. Crypto Scient forecast on February 12 that BTC could fill the gap at $45,000.