ASML Raises Full-Year Revenue Forecast on Surging AI Chip Demand
Explosive growth in artificial intelligence is driving a sharp increase in AI chip demand and spurring capacity expansion across the core semiconductor supply chain. ASML, the sole supplier of extreme ultraviolet lithography systems, occupies a pivotal position in global chip manufacturing, making its performance a key barometer for the technology sector. Equipment purchases by major chipmakers including TSMC, Samsung and Intel also shape the deployment of advanced semiconductor capacity worldwide.
ASML reported second-quarter results on July 15, 2026, and raised its full-year revenue forecast by about 16% to €43 billion–€45 billion. The revision was driven mainly by TSMC and Samsung accelerating their expansion of AI chip capacity, while Intel is also set to use ASML’s next-generation High-NA EUV equipment in mass production for the first time. Strong purchasing by major chipmakers has pushed ASML’s orders above expectations and underscored robust growth in the semiconductor capital-spending cycle.
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The history behind this eventASML’s Chipmaking Grip Weakens as China Advances
ASML is the world’s only volume supplier of extreme ultraviolet lithography systems and also dominates immersion deep ultraviolet equipment, giving the Dutch company an outsize role in producing advanced chips for AI. US-led export controls have blocked China from buying ASML’s most sophisticated tools, but the restrictions have strengthened Beijing’s incentive to develop domestic alternatives, potentially reshaping semiconductor supply chains and weakening ASML’s pricing power over time.
Reuters reported on July 28 that state-owned Shanghai Aishengna Electronic Technology Group was leading an effort to mass-produce Chinese immersion DUV systems. China aims to build five machines in 2026 and 20 in 2027, versus the 131 comparable systems ASML shipped in 2025. ASML shares fell about 10% in two days, erasing more than €60 billion in market value. The company expects China to contribute about €9 billion, or 20%, of 2026 revenue, leaving near-term damage limited but raising longer-term risk.
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