Crypto Whales Accelerate Accumulation as Bear Market Matures

Bitcoin ownership trends are closely watched as a gauge of market conviction and available supply. Santiment classifies addresses holding more than 10,000 BTC as mega-whales, investors whose accumulation can signal longer-term confidence and shift coins away from more active traders. A rising concentration among these large holders may tighten liquid supply, though wallet data alone cannot establish who controls an address or guarantee a price rally.

Santiment’s latest on-chain data showed the number of wallets holding more than 10,000 BTC reaching a six-month high. Large holders accumulated as retail investors sold amid anxiety over a cold-wallet theft and delays to cryptocurrency legislation, accelerating a transfer of supply from smaller accounts to deep-pocketed buyers. Analysts said the divergence has increased the likelihood of an upside move through $70,000, although the threshold remains a market forecast rather than a confirmed breakout.

Bitcoin has long relied on large holders and fresh capital to support demand. On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant treats whales and so-called “dolphin” accounts, including ETFs and companies, as demand indicators. If these groups stop accumulating, even a record supply held by long-term investors could signal a shift from accumulation to distribution, weakening market support.

CryptoQuant’s latest report said the annual growth rate of whale holdings has turned negative, while growth among dolphins—primarily spot ETFs and companies—has also slowed markedly, indicating that new investors have yet to take over as buyers. The available event data did not disclose the report’s date, net ETF flows or the amount of holdings sold. The confirmed key signal is that buying by both major groups is cooling at the same time.

On-chain analytics platform Santiment classifies addresses holding 10 to 10,000 Bitcoin as whales and sharks, whose activity is often used to assess shifts in holdings. On March 15, Bitcoin traded at about $71,350, while this group's share of supply rose to 68.17% from 68.07% a week earlier. Santiment described the shift as a bullish “positive reversal,” though a market bottom would also require retail investors to exit.

The latest data showed that the group accumulated another 40,967 BTC from April 10 to April 23, a 0.3% increase over two weeks worth about $3.17 billion at the time. Retail addresses holding less than 0.1 BTC added just 46 coins over the same period. Santiment said on April 23 that continued buying by large holders, coupled with retail profit-taking, would be one of the strongest signals that a long-term bull market was taking shape. BTC was trading at about $78,300 at the time.

CryptoQuant’s Binance on-chain data use the Exchange Whale Ratio—the share of total deposits accounted for by the 10 largest inflows—to gauge potential selling pressure from large holders. The ratio briefly topped 0.60 in early February 2026, coinciding with Bitcoin’s pullback that month. The price subsequently held within a $65,000–$72,000 range, making fund flows a key indicator of the direction of the next breakout.

As of March 11, 2026, the 14-day moving average of Binance’s whale ratio had fallen to about 0.45, while net exchange flow dropped to negative 1,151 BTC, indicating that withdrawals exceeded deposits and fewer coins were available for sale. Maartunn said the futures-to-spot volume ratio rose to about 5.3, its highest since October 2023. If $70,000 turns into support, the price could reprice rapidly, though $72,000 remains resistance.