Bitcoin Mega-Whales Accumulate as Retail Retreats

CryptoQuant tracks large-holder balances and realized price — the average cost basis implied by when tokens last moved — to gauge where digital-asset cycles stand. Whale accumulation during a decline matters because it shifts supply from smaller sellers to investors viewed as more willing to hold, potentially tightening the tradable float once demand returns. The signal is constructive, but it does not establish that a market bottom is in; concentration also leaves prices exposed to the actions of fewer, larger holders.

In an Aug. 5 report, CryptoQuant said bitcoin whale balances, excluding exchanges, miners, ETFs and digital-asset treasury companies, rose to about 3.06 million BTC from 2.87 million in December 2025. Wallets holding 10,000 to 100,000 ETH increased their combined balance to a record 19.6 million ETH from about 14 million in mid-2025, while XRP remained in a $1.00-$1.20 range. Bitcoin traded near $64,640 against a $52,900 realized price, and ether near $1,900 versus a $2,450 realized price. CryptoQuant called the setup consistent with a late-stage bear market, while warning of another leg lower.

Bitcoin “whales” generally refer to investors holding enough BTC to influence market supply and demand. Those holding 1,000–10,000 BTC often include wealthy investors and institutions. A recovery in their holdings indicates that available supply is being steadily absorbed, making it an important gauge of medium-term price momentum.

The latest onchain data show that these whales have accumulated Bitcoin steadily over the past five months, lifting their combined holdings to 3.09 million BTC, the highest level since November 2025. Analysts said continued buying by large investors and institutions could support Bitcoin’s next attempt to break through $80,000.

On-chain analytics platform Santiment classifies addresses holding 10 to 10,000 Bitcoin as whales and sharks, whose activity is often used to assess shifts in holdings. On March 15, Bitcoin traded at about $71,350, while this group's share of supply rose to 68.17% from 68.07% a week earlier. Santiment described the shift as a bullish “positive reversal,” though a market bottom would also require retail investors to exit.

The latest data showed that the group accumulated another 40,967 BTC from April 10 to April 23, a 0.3% increase over two weeks worth about $3.17 billion at the time. Retail addresses holding less than 0.1 BTC added just 46 coins over the same period. Santiment said on April 23 that continued buying by large holders, coupled with retail profit-taking, would be one of the strongest signals that a long-term bull market was taking shape. BTC was trading at about $78,300 at the time.

CryptoQuant’s Binance on-chain data use the Exchange Whale Ratio—the share of total deposits accounted for by the 10 largest inflows—to gauge potential selling pressure from large holders. The ratio briefly topped 0.60 in early February 2026, coinciding with Bitcoin’s pullback that month. The price subsequently held within a $65,000–$72,000 range, making fund flows a key indicator of the direction of the next breakout.

As of March 11, 2026, the 14-day moving average of Binance’s whale ratio had fallen to about 0.45, while net exchange flow dropped to negative 1,151 BTC, indicating that withdrawals exceeded deposits and fewer coins were available for sale. Maartunn said the futures-to-spot volume ratio rose to about 5.3, its highest since October 2023. If $70,000 turns into support, the price could reprice rapidly, though $72,000 remains resistance.