Bitcoin On-Chain Data Signals Seller Reluctance as Cycle Bottom Draws Near
Glassnode’s RUP and RUL metrics track Bitcoin supply in unrealized profit and loss. In previous cycles, an approaching BTC bottom has often been signaled when most holders are underwater, profitable holders have largely exhausted their selling and loss-making holders also become reluctant to sell, constricting circulating supply.
Analyst Mr. Berg recently said the RUP and RUL profit-and-loss curves were nearing the threshold for a bottom signal, suggesting that profit-taking pressure was gradually drying up and underwater holders were becoming less willing to sell. However, the report provided no exact publication date, BTC price or trigger threshold. The signal merely suggests that a bottom may be close and does not confirm a reversal.
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The history behind this eventBitcoin Buyer Behavior May Signal 2026 Bear-Market Bottom Is Near
Bitcoin price swings are closely tied to investor holding behavior. On-chain analytics platform Glassnode said realized losses among long-term holders who have held Bitcoin for one to two years are often a key indicator for predicting market cycles when the market reverses. A slowdown in selling pressure from this group can help investors assess when the next bear-market bottom may occur.
According to the latest Glassnode data released in July 2026, investors who bought Bitcoin at $107,000 a year earlier are showing early signs that the 2026 bear-market bottom is approaching. Meanwhile, the average cost basis of short-term speculators has reinforced $69,000 as the next key battleground between Bitcoin bulls and bears.
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