Bitcoin Buyer Behavior May Signal 2026 Bear-Market Bottom Is Near

According to K33 Research, more than 50% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply fell into an unrealized loss for the first time when the cryptocurrency’s price dropped to about $61,900 on June 5, 2026. Historically, this has been a classic late-stage bear-market indicator. When most investors are sitting on losses, retail capitulation and a redistribution of holdings among long-term investors typically follow, making the metric an important gauge of whether the crypto market is entering a bottoming phase.

Bitcoin had recovered to about $63,000 as of July 17, 2026, but the share of supply in loss had remained above 50% for 42 days. Historical patterns show that the market typically reaches a macro price bottom within 13–101 days after the metric crosses the halfway mark. The current 42-day stretch is the second longest on record, behind only the 2014 bear market, suggesting Bitcoin is in a critical countdown toward a bottom.

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has long tracked cryptocurrency capital flows and holders’ cost bases. The market entered a correction after Bitcoin’s previous peak. Key cost-basis levels matter because they serve as psychological dividing lines between bull and bear markets. When prices remain below holders’ average costs for an extended period, the market enters a deep bottom-building phase, providing investors seeking medium- to long-term entry points with a key gauge for whether to buy the dip.

According to Glassnode’s latest weekly report, published in July 2026, Bitcoin has traded below several key cost-basis support levels for five consecutive months, leaving it at a deep discount. Profit-taking by long-term holders and persistently weak institutional demand through spot ETFs have weighed on spot prices, although the derivatives market is showing signs of de-risking. The market will now watch for three major reversal signals, including easing selling pressure and a return of institutional capital.

Glassnode estimates holders’ cost basis from the price at which Bitcoin last moved onchain, classifying coins as carrying an unrealized loss when the market price falls below that level. When supply held at a loss overtakes supply in profit and the price approaches its 200-week moving average, it often signals pressure on investors and a change of hands. Such conditions have historically appeared late in bear markets, but do not confirm that a bottom is in.

Glassnode said on July 1 that about 10.83 million Bitcoin were held at a loss, exceeding the 9.22 million still in profit. Bitcoin rebounded to about $61,700 on July 3 but remained below its 200-week moving average of $62,660. K33 found that the market historically bottomed within about 13–101 days after similar signals appeared.

Bitcoin “OGs” generally refers to early investors who have held the cryptocurrency for more than five years, and movements of their coins are often seen as a sign of profit-taking. CryptoQuant tracks these holdings through spent transaction outputs, or STXOs. The bull cycle that began in early 2023 saw the most aggressive selling on record, making the retreat in selling pressure important to the market’s ability to establish structural support.

CryptoQuant data showed that as of June 23, 2026, the 90-day average amount spent by OG holders had fallen to 962 BTC, its lowest since November 2024 and a 19-month low. That was sharply below the May 2024 peak of 3,860 BTC. Using the halving cycle, analyst LP calculated that July 6, 2026, was day 826 and said the window for a market bottom could fall in early September.

The “realized price” represents the average on-chain acquisition cost of all bitcoin in circulation, and Glassnode uses it to gauge whether holders overall are sitting on losses. Bitcoin briefly fell below this level before bottoming in 2011, 2015, 2018–2019, March 2020 and the 2022 bear market. The measure is therefore viewed as an important gauge of market capitulation and cyclical lows.

CoinDesk reported on June 23, 2026, that bitcoin was testing its 200-week moving average at about $62,400. If that level fails, the next threshold would be Glassnode’s estimated realized price of $53,457, more than 15% below the level at the time. Whales holding 10,000 to 100,000 BTC have an estimated cost basis of about $54,300, and the market could find a bottom in the $50,000–$54,000 range.

Bitcoin's supply schedule is shaped by block-reward halvings that occur about once every four years, and markets often use post-halving cycles to estimate shifts between bull and bear markets. CryptoQuant onchain data show that cyclical bottoms in historical price patterns have often occurred between September and November. Whether the current downturn will persist through the end of 2026 has therefore become an important factor in investors' risk assessments.

Several analysts have recently used historical halving cycles and price models to estimate that Bitcoin may not bottom until the fourth quarter of 2026, with October seen as a potential turning point. Forecasts vary by model: more conservative estimates put the bottom at about $40,000–$50,000, while a bearish scenario points to a possible drop to $30,000. The main market consensus centers on $30,000–$45,000.

On-chain data platform Glassnode assesses Bitcoin market cycles using investors’ cost bases and unrealized profits and losses. Its “median holder breakeven level” marks the cost threshold dividing investors in half. A move below that level typically signals mounting market pressure and may indicate that Bitcoin is gradually entering a historically low valuation range.

Glassnode co-founder Rafael most recently said Bitcoin had fallen below the median holder breakeven level. Based on historical cycles and on-chain valuations, he estimated that the market is likely to bottom between $46,000 and $54,000 in the current cycle. He also said drawdowns from the peak have been gradually shrinking with each cycle, while stressing that the projected bottom is not a definitive price target.

Bitcoin’s “realized losses” are the cumulative losses incurred when holders sell below their purchase price. The metric is commonly used to gauge bear-market pressure and the extent of investor capitulation. CryptoQuant said cumulative realized losses reached $211 billion during the 2022 bear market, providing a key benchmark for assessing whether the current cycle has bottomed.

As of 2026, cumulative realized losses in the Bitcoin bear market remain about $35 billion below the 2022 total, implying losses of roughly $176 billion. Analysts say the market has yet to show typical bottoming signals and may need several more months to absorb selling pressure. Another wave of capitulation selling could occur before a clearer cyclical low takes shape.

Bitcoin prices often move through bull and bear cycles shaped by halving cycles and market liquidity. On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant uses indicators including the MVRV Z-score to measure how far market value has diverged from realized value, helping it assess pressure from investor losses and identify long-term bottom zones.

CryptoQuant's latest analysis estimates that Bitcoin could face another shakeout in the second half of 2026 and hit an “iron bottom” of about $55,000 around December. It describes the current market as the middle of a grueling marathon and says another round of position-clearing is needed before a subsequent rebound can begin.

Glassnode uses onchain data to track the distribution of Bitcoin holdings and believes bear-market bottoms typically become clearer only when long-term holders control at least 85% of the supply. The threshold reflects coins moving from short-term traders to long-term investors and is an important signal for assessing whether selling pressure has been fully absorbed.

As of July 20, 2026, Glassnode’s indicator showed that long-term holders controlled about 80% of the supply, 5 percentage points short of the historical 85% bottoming threshold. The market could therefore remain range-bound for several more months. The related report did not provide Bitcoin’s U.S. dollar price at the time or any other monetary figures.