Bernstein Says Crypto Markets Underprice Clarity Act Progress

The Clarity Act is intended to establish clearer US rules for digital-asset markets, making its progress important for companies whose growth and compliance costs depend on the regulatory treatment of crypto. Coinbase, stablecoin issuer Circle and crypto trading company Bullish are particularly exposed to shifts in policy expectations, leaving their shares sensitive to signs that legislation may advance.

Coinbase, Circle and Bullish shares climbed roughly 8% to 10% after supporters voiced optimism about the bill’s prospects. Investors are now focused on a key procedural vote scheduled for Sept. 15, which could determine whether the measure moves to the next stage of consideration. The rally reflected renewed expectations that greater regulatory clarity could improve the operating outlook and valuations of publicly traded crypto companies.

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act seeks to establish a federal framework for digital assets, including clearer divisions between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The House passed the measure 294-134 on July 17, 2025, making Senate action the next major test. The legislation matters because statutory rules could give crypto exchanges, token issuers and institutional investors greater certainty than policies based mainly on regulators’ interpretations.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said in August 2026 that crypto would remain resilient even if the CLARITY Act failed to advance this week, arguing that adoption and industry development could not simply be reversed. The Senate is due to begin an approximately month-long recess on Aug. 7, leaving only three days as of Aug. 5 to move the bill forward. Missing that window would likely defer further consideration until lawmakers return in September.

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act would divide oversight of digital assets between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, while establishing federal rules for token issuers and trading venues. The House passed the measure 294-134 on July 17, 2025. Its fate matters because legislation would provide a more durable framework for the industry than agency interpretations that can shift between administrations.

Bernstein warned on Aug. 3, 2026, that failure to enact the Clarity Act this year could trigger another leg lower in crypto valuations as the market loses a key policy catalyst. Prediction-market odds had fallen to 31%, with the Senate approaching its recess around Aug. 7. The broker said a legislative defeat would nevertheless push the SEC and CFTC to accelerate rulemaking under Project Crypto, leaving regulators, rather than Congress, to drive the next phase of U.S. crypto oversight.

The Clarity Act under consideration in the U.S. Congress aims to divide regulatory responsibilities for digital assets and establish clear rules for trading platforms, token issuers and institutional investors. Jefferies says enactment could accelerate institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies, while delays would allow regulatory uncertainty to continue driving cryptocurrency prices and blockchain-related stocks.

As of July 20, 2026, the Clarity Act had passed review by the U.S. Senate Banking Committee but still faced a compressed Senate calendar and political concerns. Jefferies warned that the outcome of the legislative process could amplify market volatility. The related reports disclosed no specific investment or transaction amounts and provided no date for a Senate vote.

The CLARITY Act seeks to establish a US crypto-asset market structure framework and clarify the division of regulatory authority between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. If the bill reaches the full Senate, it would typically need at least 60 votes to advance, making bipartisan cooperation critical to its prospects of becoming federal law. Current polling shows that most voters support clear cryptocurrency rules.

Coinbase Vice President of Policy Kara Calvert said at Consensus 2026 that the Senate Banking Committee could take up the bill as early as the following week. The committee subsequently scheduled a markup for May 14 and voted to advance the CLARITY Act. The bill must still clear a full Senate vote, while lawmakers' dispute over crypto-asset ethics rules for government officials could affect the final timetable and bipartisan support.