Jefferies Warns Senate Review of Clarity Act Will Fuel Crypto Market Volatility

The US Congress is considering the CLARITY Act, which seeks to clarify regulatory responsibilities for digital assets and trading platforms and reduce legal uncertainty for crypto companies. Senator Cynthia Lummis says clear rules are critical to bringing businesses back to the United States and preserving the country’s leadership in financial technology.

Lummis warned that this week could be the United States’ last critical opportunity to advance the CLARITY Act before 2030. She said China could otherwise write the rules for a new financial era. Negotiations have continued since the Senate returned, but Democrats and Republicans remain divided over provisions covering lawmakers’ ethics and safeguards against bad actors. A vote on crypto market structure could take place as early as August.

The U.S. CLARITY Act seeks to establish a market structure and division of regulatory responsibilities for digital assets. The crypto industry sees it as crucial legislation for clarifying rules governing securities, commodities and trading platforms. Its progress will affect not only compliance pathways for U.S. businesses but also competition between stablecoin rewards and bank deposits, as well as the future boundaries of DeFi regulation.

Galaxy Digital head of research Alex Thorn recently cut his estimate of the bill's chances of passing in 2026 to 60%. He warned that committee consideration must be completed by the end of April, with the measure reaching the Senate floor in May; if that window is missed, its chances of passing this year would be extremely low. Wintermute's Ron Hammond had previously put the probability at just 30%, highlighting a compressed legislative calendar and opposition from the banking industry as the main obstacles.

The U.S. Congress is considering the Clarity Act, which would expand the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s authority over digital asset markets. Brookings Institution fellow Aaron Klein said shifting responsibilities without a corresponding increase in enforcement resources would undermine investor protection and market order.

Klein warned that regulation could become little more than a formality if Congress grants the CFTC new powers without providing adequate funding and staff with digital asset expertise. Reports did not specify the additional budget, staffing levels or a firm timetable for deliberations, making the bill’s eventual resource allocation critical to its effectiveness.

The CLARITY Act seeks to establish a US crypto-asset market structure framework and clarify the division of regulatory authority between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. If the bill reaches the full Senate, it would typically need at least 60 votes to advance, making bipartisan cooperation critical to its prospects of becoming federal law. Current polling shows that most voters support clear cryptocurrency rules.

Coinbase Vice President of Policy Kara Calvert said at Consensus 2026 that the Senate Banking Committee could take up the bill as early as the following week. The committee subsequently scheduled a markup for May 14 and voted to advance the CLARITY Act. The bill must still clear a full Senate vote, while lawmakers' dispute over crypto-asset ethics rules for government officials could affect the final timetable and bipartisan support.

The CLARITY Act seeks to define how oversight of crypto assets should be divided between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, making it a key piece of legislation for establishing federal market rules. The bill remains stalled over stablecoin yield provisions, with the crypto and banking industries still divided over interest, rewards and the impact on competition for deposits.

Republican Senator Thom Tillis urged the Senate Banking Committee to delay its review until May to allow more time for negotiations. The committee subsequently scheduled a markup for May 14, while Chairman Tim Scott had hoped to finish the process by May 21. However, the July 4 deadline passed without the bill clearing the hurdle, raising concerns that it may not pass before the November midterm elections.

US cryptocurrency regulation has long relied on securities and commodities laws as well as regulators’ discretion, leaving the boundaries around token classification and developer liability unclear. Nonprofit advocacy group Coin Center says the CLARITY Act is intended to establish a framework for classifying digital assets and provide statutory protections for noncustodial blockchain developers, determining whether the industry can operate under predictable rules.

As of July 20, 2026, the CLARITY Act and related blockchain legislation remained stalled in the US Senate, with provisions including stablecoin yield among the disputed issues. No specific amount is involved. Coin Center warned that unless Congress explicitly limits regulatory discretion, future administrations could change their enforcement stance and take tougher measures against cryptocurrency companies and developers.

JPMorgan said Bitcoin has remained range-bound amid weak trading volumes, with the market lacking a clear catalyst to attract institutional investors. The CLARITY Act is important because it could delineate the regulatory responsibilities of the SEC and CFTC, reducing compliance uncertainty for companies involved in trading, custody and asset tokenization.

The latest analysis said passage of the CLARITY Act by midyear could mark the start of a stronger crypto market in the second half, with JPMorgan identifying eight potential tailwinds. The bill remains unresolved, however, and the legislative window is narrowing. The information provided no specific Bitcoin price target, and the event does not involve a transaction or fundraising amount.