Bitcoin May End May Down 3% as Markets Eye U.S. PMI, Labor Data

Bitcoin has continued to retreat from its highs, with $62,000 emerging as a key support level for the market. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ consumer price index (CPI) influences expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, which in turn affect dollar liquidity and valuations for risk assets including cryptocurrencies. That makes the U.S. inflation reading for May particularly important.

Bitcoin most recently fell below $62,000 and briefly approached $61,000. More than $426 million in positions were liquidated across the market over the past 24 hours, with long positions accounting for about 80%, while the Fear Index dropped to 12. U.S. core CPI subsequently rose 0.2% month on month in May, less than the market had feared, helping Bitcoin pare some losses. The $60,000 threshold nevertheless remains under pressure.

Bitcoin has remained under pressure amid threats from U.S. tariff policy and a broader selloff in risk assets. Because BTC is widely viewed as a gauge of risk appetite in crypto markets, its sharp decline has weighed on the sector and prompted investors to seek refuge in stablecoins, rapidly worsening market sentiment.

As of Feb. 23, 2026, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index had fallen to 5, placing it in the “extreme fear” zone. Polymarket traders put the probability of BTC falling below $55,000 at 72%, up from the 66%–70% shown in related reports, signaling expectations that the selloff could continue.

Bitcoin has historically shown clear seasonality, with traders often using the “sell in May and go away” adage to assess risk-asset performance. Historical data show that when Bitcoin ends May lower, its average return in June is negative 10.1%. Although the pattern is not inevitable, it could still influence asset allocation and near-term market sentiment.

Bitcoin’s latest price action shows it falling about 10% from a May high of $83,000, turning its monthly performance negative. As June begins, traders are watching the historical tendency for Bitcoin to fall by an average of another 10.1% in the month after a May decline. Price pressure could persist if that move is repeated, though a historical average is not a forecast of actual performance.

Bitcoin and risk assets such as U.S. stocks are highly sensitive to the outlook for U.S. interest rates. A hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index from the U.S. Labor Department pushed back market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Persistent bond-market concerns over inflation and broader economic risks drove capital toward safe-haven assets such as gold, putting cryptocurrencies under selling pressure.

Bitcoin initially fell to about $65,000 in a weekend sell-off, while Solana, XRP and Dogecoin each dropped about 6%. Although Bitcoin and U.S. stocks briefly stabilized afterward, the cryptocurrency failed to hold above $66,000. Market analysis remained cautious on March 27, with Bitcoin holders' unrealized losses estimated at $600 billion. Only some AI-related tokens continued to attract buying interest.

Bitcoin has often moved in tandem with risk assets such as the Nasdaq. Investors also use the S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) to assess economic conditions and the likely direction of Federal Reserve policy. This time, however, BTC rallied even as Middle East tensions weighed on U.S. stocks, prompting markets to watch for signs of an independent flow of capital into crypto assets.

After markets opened on Monday, July 20, the latest U.S. manufacturing PMI data improved risk appetite, sending Bitcoin sharply higher and close to $70,000. The cryptocurrency remained strong even as concerns involving Iran persisted and U.S. stocks weakened over the same period. The $70,000 threshold is now the key battleground for bulls and bears this week.