Bitcoin’s Weak May Raises Risk of Another 10% Drop in June
Bitcoin has historically shown clear seasonality, with traders often using the “sell in May and go away” adage to assess risk-asset performance. Historical data show that when Bitcoin ends May lower, its average return in June is negative 10.1%. Although the pattern is not inevitable, it could still influence asset allocation and near-term market sentiment.
Bitcoin’s latest price action shows it falling about 10% from a May high of $83,000, turning its monthly performance negative. As June begins, traders are watching the historical tendency for Bitcoin to fall by an average of another 10.1% in the month after a May decline. Price pressure could persist if that move is repeated, though a historical average is not a forecast of actual performance.
All Coverage
1 original reportsThe Backstory
The history behind this eventAnalyst Warns Bitcoin Could Fall Further After Worst June Since 2022
Bitcoin rebounded after the crypto market’s deleveraging in 2022, but its price remains sensitive to capital flows and technical support levels. The pseudonymous analyst PlanB assesses market cycles using realized price and the 200-week moving average. Investors often use these indicators to gauge whether a bear market has bottomed, drawing attention to the latest warning.
Bitcoin fell 20.5% in June and ended the month at $58,526, marking its worst June performance since June 2022. PlanB said the price remained above realized price but was below the 200-week moving average, suggesting a bottom might not yet have formed. Bitcoin could fall further to $52,000, the analyst warned.
Bitcoin May End May Down 3% as Markets Eye U.S. PMI, Labor Data
Bitcoin is highly sensitive to U.S. dollar liquidity and interest-rate expectations. The Institute for Supply Management’s purchasing managers’ index and U.S. Labor Department employment data often reshape views on the economy and monetary policy, making them major sources of volatility for risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.
As of the end of May, Bitcoin was hovering near $73,500 and could close the month about 3% lower. Markets have turned their attention to U.S. PMI and labor-market data due next week. Any shift in rate-cut expectations or the dollar’s direction could become a key catalyst for BTC prices in early June.
Subscribe to Mark Radar Weekly
Every Friday, the week's strongest signals in your inbox. Unsubscribe anytime.
If you search news on Google, you can set Mark Radar as a preferred source—our coverage will show up more often in your results. Set as preferred source on Google →