10x Research Says Bitcoin Cannot Reach $1 Million by 2030
Bitcoin bulls have long treated $1 million per coin as a defining milestone, with some forecasts setting 2030 as the deadline. Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, argues that such projections cannot be assessed through percentage gains alone. They must also account for Bitcoin’s expanding market capitalization, the pool of available investment capital and whether global markets can supply enough incremental demand within a few years.
Thielen said Bitcoin would need to attract roughly $15 trillion in additional capital to reach $1 million by 2030, an amount equal to about one-quarter of the total US equity market. Based on the scale of funds that entered Bitcoin over the past 15 years, he said the asset could not generate the required increase within the remaining period. He therefore described the $1 million target as “mathematically impossible,” rather than merely improbable.
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The history behind this eventVanEck's Sigel Sees Bitcoin Reaching $1 Million Within Five Years
U.S. asset manager VanEck has long conducted digital-asset research, and its head of digital assets research, Matthew Sigel, remains bullish on Bitcoin (BTC). He compared Bitcoin's growing adoption with the video game industry's move into the mainstream, arguing that wider market adoption could support its long-term value and attract investor attention.
As of July 20, 2026, Sigel's latest forecast sees Bitcoin potentially rising to $1 million per coin within five years, or by around 2031. The specific price target and timeline extend VanEck's long-term bullish stance, but the projection is Sigel's personal forecast and does not guarantee returns.
Bitwise CIO Says Institutional Inflows Could Send Bitcoin Above $1 Million
Bitcoin has long been viewed as “digital gold,” competing with gold and other global stores of value. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved spot Bitcoin ETFs, including Bitwise’s product, on January 10, 2024, giving pension funds, asset managers and other institutions access to Bitcoin through regulated investment vehicles and broadening its potential funding base.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan recently said Bitcoin could surpass $1 million within the next 10 years if it captures about 17% of the global store-of-value market. He said institutional investors continued to hold even when Bitcoin fell 50%, while professional investors are gradually increasing portfolio allocations as volatility declines.
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