Bitwise CIO Says Institutional Inflows Could Send Bitcoin Above $1 Million

Bitcoin bulls have long treated $1 million per coin as a defining milestone, with some forecasts setting 2030 as the deadline. Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, argues that such projections cannot be assessed through percentage gains alone. They must also account for Bitcoin’s expanding market capitalization, the pool of available investment capital and whether global markets can supply enough incremental demand within a few years.

Thielen said Bitcoin would need to attract roughly $15 trillion in additional capital to reach $1 million by 2030, an amount equal to about one-quarter of the total US equity market. Based on the scale of funds that entered Bitcoin over the past 15 years, he said the asset could not generate the required increase within the remaining period. He therefore described the $1 million target as “mathematically impossible,” rather than merely improbable.

Bitcoin is increasingly being pitched as a strategic portfolio asset for institutions rather than a vehicle dominated by retail speculation. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said pension plans and sovereign wealth funds represent vast pools of capital whose modest allocations could materially alter bitcoin’s supply-demand balance. Spot bitcoin ETFs are expected to serve as the primary regulated channel for institutions seeking exposure through established investment infrastructure.

Hougan forecasts that institutional investors will direct trillions of dollars into bitcoin over the next decade. He said a 1% shift from the global pool of investable capital would be sufficient to support Bitwise’s long-term target of $1.3 million per bitcoin by 2035. The outlook depends heavily on continued adoption of spot bitcoin ETFs by large investors, including pension funds and sovereign wealth funds.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved the first spot Bitcoin ETFs on January 10, 2024, allowing investors to gain exposure through brokerage accounts and lowering custody and trading barriers. Large financial institutions including Morgan Stanley subsequently entered the market, helping move the asset beyond its retail-dominated base and into diversified portfolios. Institutional demand and market liquidity have therefore become important sources of price support.

On April 29, 2026, 21Shares Chief Investment Officer Adrian Fritz said spot Bitcoin ETFs had attracted nearly $2 billion since the start of the year, while Bitcoin’s daily trading volume had exceeded $50 billion, giving it liquidity comparable to large-cap stocks such as Nvidia. Bitcoin was still trading below $80,000 at the time. Fritz said it could rise above $100,000 by year-end if ETF inflows continued and the price broke through its 200-day moving average in the $85,000–$90,000 range.

Atlas Capital was co-founded by Nouriel Roubini, the economist known as “Dr. Doom” who warned of the 2008 financial crisis. CEO Reza Bundy views Bitcoin as a risk asset that behaves more like technology stocks. His forecast underscores the cryptocurrency’s continued sensitivity to equity markets, global liquidity and confidence in fiat currencies.

Speaking at the Proof of Talk conference in Paris on June 4, 2026, Bundy said Bitcoin could fall as much as 70% over the next six months to $26,000–$30,000 if equities undergo a severe correction. He nevertheless remained bullish on long-term demand, forecasting that Bitcoin could eventually reach $150,000–$500,000.

Bitcoin has no central issuer and is not backed by sovereign credit, leading some investors to view it as an alternative hedge against government debt risk. Bitwise Europe cited a model proposed by investor Greg Foss in 2021 that treats Bitcoin as analogous to a credit default swap on G20 sovereign bonds, highlighting the importance of global borrowing and refinancing pressures to crypto-asset valuations.

In its June 2026 monthly report, Bitwise Europe estimated Bitcoin's theoretical fair value at about $224,000 based on the size of the G20 bond market and weighted default probabilities. It stressed that the figure was a scenario model, not a price target. The OECD estimates governments and companies will borrow $29 trillion in 2026, up 17% from 2024. Bitcoin traded at about $66,300 when the report was published.

Strategy has long raised funds through debt and preferred stock offerings to increase its Bitcoin holdings, making it a closely watched gauge of corporate crypto treasury strategies. The return of its STRC preferred stock to its $100-per-share par value helps restore the company’s financing capacity and could bring substantial new buying to the Bitcoin market.

The latest analysis suggests Strategy could buy at least 3,127 Bitcoin over two days as soon as this week, exceeding the 3,000 cited in the headline. As stablecoins’ market share declines and capital shifts into risk assets, Bitcoin is expected to strengthen in the second quarter and could break above $100,000 by the end of June.

U.S. asset manager VanEck has long conducted digital-asset research, and its head of digital assets research, Matthew Sigel, remains bullish on Bitcoin (BTC). He compared Bitcoin's growing adoption with the video game industry's move into the mainstream, arguing that wider market adoption could support its long-term value and attract investor attention.

As of July 20, 2026, Sigel's latest forecast sees Bitcoin potentially rising to $1 million per coin within five years, or by around 2031. The specific price target and timeline extend VanEck's long-term bullish stance, but the projection is Sigel's personal forecast and does not guarantee returns.

Since the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, ETF fund flows have become an important gauge of institutional demand. Bitcoin's performance also influences major altcoins including ETH, XRP and SOL, with the market watching whether the current rally will break from the traditional four-year cycle.

As of May 6, Bitcoin faced selling pressure above $82,800, but U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had recorded $1.63 billion in cumulative net inflows in May, indicating that investors were still building positions. Analysts said Bitcoin may be entering its first “supercycle” and forecast that its price could exceed $250,000 between 2027 and 2028.

Bitcoin’s new daily supply comes primarily from miners and remains relatively fixed. When institutional buying exceeds daily production, the amount available in the market may tighten. Recent demand has been driven by U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and continued purchases by MicroStrategy, making sustained institutional inflows a key indicator of whether prices can push higher again.

Latest data show that institutional investors are absorbing more than 500% of the daily mined supply, meaning demand exceeds new supply by more than fivefold. The report did not disclose a daily dollar amount. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, expects Bitcoin could challenge $96,000 by June if ETF inflows and MicroStrategy purchases continue.

Bitcoin reclaimed the $70,000 level as institutional buying through U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs picked up, bringing some ETF investors close to breakeven. The market views $68,000 as the key medium-term dividing line between bullish and bearish momentum. Whether Bitcoin can hold above it will help determine if the rebound extends into April.

Bitcoin recently traded above $70,000 at one point during the New York session, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $500 million in net inflows in a single day. Around March 11, analysts said that if the weekly close continued to hold above the $68,000 trendline, a break above $72,000 could quickly propel Bitcoin into the major short-liquidation zone at $80,000.