Glassnode Warns Bitcoin Could Test $60,000 as Negative Gamma Threatens to Deepen Selloff
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode said a large concentration of defensive positions had accumulated in the Bitcoin options market below $68,000. If the price breaks key support, market makers may increase short positions to remain risk-neutral, creating a negative-gamma feedback loop that amplifies both losses and volatility. Glassnode said the dynamic represented a significant warning for the market.
As of July 19, 2026, Bitcoin had fallen by about $5,000 over several days. Glassnode warned that rising geopolitical risks, thin market liquidity and options-hedging pressure below $68,000 could push the cryptocurrency to test $60,000. In an extreme scenario, the price could fall as low as $50,000 if selling intensifies.
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The history behind this eventGlassnode Co-Founder Sees Bitcoin’s Likely Bottom at $46,000–$54,000
On-chain data platform Glassnode assesses Bitcoin market cycles using investors’ cost bases and unrealized profits and losses. Its “median holder breakeven level” marks the cost threshold dividing investors in half. A move below that level typically signals mounting market pressure and may indicate that Bitcoin is gradually entering a historically low valuation range.
Glassnode co-founder Rafael most recently said Bitcoin had fallen below the median holder breakeven level. Based on historical cycles and on-chain valuations, he estimated that the market is likely to bottom between $46,000 and $54,000 in the current cycle. He also said drawdowns from the peak have been gradually shrinking with each cycle, while stressing that the projected bottom is not a definitive price target.
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