Glassnode Co-Founder Sees Bitcoin’s Likely Bottom at $46,000–$54,000

Bitcoin price swings are closely tied to investor holding behavior. On-chain analytics platform Glassnode said realized losses among long-term holders who have held Bitcoin for one to two years are often a key indicator for predicting market cycles when the market reverses. A slowdown in selling pressure from this group can help investors assess when the next bear-market bottom may occur.

According to the latest Glassnode data released in July 2026, investors who bought Bitcoin at $107,000 a year earlier are showing early signs that the 2026 bear-market bottom is approaching. Meanwhile, the average cost basis of short-term speculators has reinforced $69,000 as the next key battleground between Bitcoin bulls and bears.

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has long tracked cryptocurrency capital flows and holders’ cost bases. The market entered a correction after Bitcoin’s previous peak. Key cost-basis levels matter because they serve as psychological dividing lines between bull and bear markets. When prices remain below holders’ average costs for an extended period, the market enters a deep bottom-building phase, providing investors seeking medium- to long-term entry points with a key gauge for whether to buy the dip.

According to Glassnode’s latest weekly report, published in July 2026, Bitcoin has traded below several key cost-basis support levels for five consecutive months, leaving it at a deep discount. Profit-taking by long-term holders and persistently weak institutional demand through spot ETFs have weighed on spot prices, although the derivatives market is showing signs of de-risking. The market will now watch for three major reversal signals, including easing selling pressure and a return of institutional capital.

Bitcoin has fallen about 50% from its peak this cycle and is now trading near $64,000 as the market weighs whether the prolonged correction has ended. The cycle bottom is critical to entry timing and risk allocation, but Standard Chartered and Galaxy Research remain sharply divided in their readings of price action and market indicators.

Standard Chartered believes Bitcoin hit its cycle bottom in June 2026 and that the area around $64,000 could provide support. Galaxy Research and other institutions said market signals have yet to reset fully, with deleveraging still incomplete and investor sentiment not sufficiently cooled. They therefore see a risk of further price declines.

The “realized price” represents the average on-chain acquisition cost of all bitcoin in circulation, and Glassnode uses it to gauge whether holders overall are sitting on losses. Bitcoin briefly fell below this level before bottoming in 2011, 2015, 2018–2019, March 2020 and the 2022 bear market. The measure is therefore viewed as an important gauge of market capitulation and cyclical lows.

CoinDesk reported on June 23, 2026, that bitcoin was testing its 200-week moving average at about $62,400. If that level fails, the next threshold would be Glassnode’s estimated realized price of $53,457, more than 15% below the level at the time. Whales holding 10,000 to 100,000 BTC have an estimated cost basis of about $54,300, and the market could find a bottom in the $50,000–$54,000 range.

Bitcoin has historically followed a four-year cycle of bull and bear market turns, with traders often estimating bottoms using declines from previous highs, on-chain cost bases and speculative activity. Galaxy Research said the latest peak lacked the ICO frenzy of 2017 and the NFT and DeFi mania of 2021. This “calm top” may have raised holders’ cost basis, making valuations based on historical bear-market drawdowns less reliable.

On June 12, 2026, Galaxy Research estimated a potential bottom for the current cycle at $53,600–$62,000. Peak-to-trough declines have narrowed from 85% and 84% in earlier cycles to 77% in 2022 and 51% so far in the current cycle. Only two of 11 top indicators were triggered at the October 2025 high, while just four of 13 bottoming indicators have appeared so far.

Bitcoin cycle bottoms typically require confirmation across several on-chain and derivatives indicators. Realized cap reflects holders' cost basis, RHODL measures the balance between long- and short-term holders, and funding rates capture sentiment in perpetual futures markets. A simultaneous stabilization across all three can therefore provide an important signal.

The latest analysis suggests Bitcoin's selloff to about $60,000 in February may have established a cyclical bottom. Realized cap remained stable at the time, RHODL readings entered a bottoming range and perpetual futures funding rates turned negative. Those signals suggest leveraged long positions were flushed out and that selling pressure may have been released in a concentrated burst.

Bitcoin’s market bottom is often estimated using declines, cycle duration and cost ranges from previous bull and bear markets, making $57,000 a potential support benchmark. Historical averages can help investors assess downside risk, but they do not guarantee prices and remain subject to capital flows, macroeconomic conditions and market sentiment.

A recent report cited an analyst as saying historical averages suggest Bitcoin could bottom near $57,000 in the current cycle. The available information does not identify the analyst or their firm, specify the period covered by the model or give the report’s publication date. The level can therefore only be treated as a cycle benchmark for now, rather than a confirmed market bottom.

Bitcoin is highly volatile, and markets often use mean-reversion models to measure how far its current price has diverged from historical trends. An analyst said a drop to $40,000 would require an extreme deviation and should not be treated as an ordinary correction. The report did not identify the analyst’s firm.

Bitcoin was trading near $78,000 when the report was published, still within the historical range of normal corrections. The model showed that a decline to $40,000 would place Bitcoin in the 0.4th percentile of historical price deviations, making it a near-unprecedented statistical outcome. The report did not provide a specific publication date.

Bitcoin prices often move through bull and bear cycles shaped by halving cycles and market liquidity. On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant uses indicators including the MVRV Z-score to measure how far market value has diverged from realized value, helping it assess pressure from investor losses and identify long-term bottom zones.

CryptoQuant's latest analysis estimates that Bitcoin could face another shakeout in the second half of 2026 and hit an “iron bottom” of about $55,000 around December. It describes the current market as the middle of a grueling marathon and says another round of position-clearing is needed before a subsequent rebound can begin.

Glassnode uses onchain data to track the distribution of Bitcoin holdings and believes bear-market bottoms typically become clearer only when long-term holders control at least 85% of the supply. The threshold reflects coins moving from short-term traders to long-term investors and is an important signal for assessing whether selling pressure has been fully absorbed.

As of July 20, 2026, Glassnode’s indicator showed that long-term holders controlled about 80% of the supply, 5 percentage points short of the historical 85% bottoming threshold. The market could therefore remain range-bound for several more months. The related report did not provide Bitcoin’s U.S. dollar price at the time or any other monetary figures.