Bitcoin Edges Higher, Holds Above $77,000 as U.S. Stocks Rebound Broadly

Bitcoin has become increasingly sensitive to swings in US equities, with moves in stock-index futures often shaping short-term demand for the largest cryptocurrency. Flows into US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds are also closely watched as a gauge of institutional appetite. Persistent withdrawals can weaken the case for a sustained rally even when broader risk assets rebound.

Bitcoin recovered above $63,000 as US equity futures advanced, but bulls remained constrained by $390 million of net outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs last week, the largest weekly withdrawal in six weeks. Market-implied odds of passage for proposed crypto legislation were also marked lower, while fear remained elevated, leaving the token’s rebound without strong confirmation from fund flows or sentiment.

Bitcoin recently established key support at $75,600, coinciding with a record high for the U.S. S&P 500 and technology-sector earnings that lifted risk appetite. The $80,000 level is seen as the dividing line between bullish and bearish momentum. A decisive break above it would shift the market’s focus to a target of $85,000.

Market tracking on May 20 showed Bitcoin rebounding from a low of $75,600, first reclaiming $77,000 and then rising to about $77,700 intraday. Traders are watching whether it can retake $80,000. Meanwhile, inflows into DOGE and SHIB strengthened, signaling increased short-term speculative demand, though bearish positioning continued to weigh on the market.

The Coinbase Premium Index tracks the Bitcoin price gap between Coinbase in the United States and other exchanges. A sustained positive reading typically signals stronger U.S. spot buying. The index remained above zero for 14 consecutive days, its longest bullish streak since Bitcoin set a record above $126,000 in October 2025, making it an important sign of recovering demand.

Bitcoin broke back above $76,000 on Tuesday, April 21, as Coinbase-led spot cumulative volume delta, or CVD, rose to $517 million from $55 million on April 17. Combined spot and futures CVD exceeded $8.5 billion. Bitcoin subsequently consolidated below $77,000, shifting the market's focus to whether $75,000 can become long-term support.

Bitcoin strengthened despite heightened geopolitical risks, showing that crypto assets were not moving entirely in step with traditional markets such as U.S. stocks and oil. The threat of war between the United States and Iran resurfaced, but investors reacted relatively calmly. Buying was driven mainly by strategic investors and short-term speculators, suggesting market risk appetite had yet to cool significantly.

In the latest trading session, U.S. stocks opened little changed and international oil prices fell, while Bitcoin's daily gain approached 3% as it reclaimed $74,000. The source material did not specify the exact reporting date, exchange or trading volume. The advance against the broader trend suggests that worsening tensions in the Middle East had yet to trigger large-scale safe-haven selling in the crypto market.

Bitcoin had retreated steadily since reaching a record $126,000 in October 2025 and came close to $60,000 at one point in 2026. Buying by US spot Bitcoin ETFs and institutions such as Strategy has therefore become a key indicator of whether market demand can stabilize and whether the bear market may be nearing an end.

On April 14, Bitcoin recovered to $74,000 from a weekend low of $70,500. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $615 million in net inflows last Thursday and Friday, while Strategy spent another $1 billion to buy 13,927 Bitcoin. However, the annualized premium on monthly futures stood at just 2%, below the neutral range of 4% to 8%, leaving the market divided over whether a reversal is underway.

The market had been weighed down by a February selloff and extreme pessimism after U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $3.8 billion in net outflows over five consecutive weeks. Crowded leveraged short positions also left the market vulnerable to a short squeeze when prices rebounded. Whether ETF inflows resume has become a key indicator of risk appetite among U.S. institutional investors.

On February 25, Bitcoin rose more than 5% over 24 hours to $67,500 in early U.S. trading. ETH reclaimed $2,000, while major tokens including SOL and DOGE gained more than 10%. CoinGlass recorded more than $307 million in short liquidations. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted net inflows of $506.5 million that day, including $297.4 million for BlackRock’s IBIT.

With the arrival of spot ETFs and institutional capital, Bitcoin has evolved from a purely crypto-driven trade into a risk asset influenced by the dollar, interest rates and technology stocks. On March 6, Morgan Stanley named BNY Mellon as custodian for its spot Bitcoin ETF, while Kraken gained access to the Fed's payment system. ICE also invested in OKX at a $25 billion valuation, underscoring the accelerating buildout of Wall Street infrastructure.

Bitcoin fell as low as $69,537 during Asian trading on March 19 before recovering to about $70,180, but it still failed to hold firmly above $70,000 after previously reaching $74,468. The Fed kept interest rates at 3.50%–3.75% on March 18 and raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.7% from 2.4%. A strong dollar and weakness in the Nasdaq offset more than $1.1 billion in net ETF inflows over the previous seven days.

Bitcoin is highly sensitive to interest-rate and inflation expectations. February’s consumer price index from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics matched market forecasts and did not support a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut. Still, falling oil prices helped ease inflationary pressure and supported risk assets including cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin quickly reversed its overnight losses after the February CPI release, first breaking above $70,100 and then climbing past $71,000. Markets also digested news of a 400 million-barrel oil release. Ether, Solana and Cardano (ADA) rose in tandem, showing little drag from weakness in U.S. stocks.

Institutional capital has become a major driver of Bitcoin prices since the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. An easing of U.S. policy uncertainty, along with gains in U.S. stocks and strong corporate earnings, lifted risk appetite and helped Bitcoin reclaim the $68,000 level.

Bitcoin surged from $62,400 to $68,600 over the past 24 hours, gaining about 9.9% and reaching a weekly high. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs ended five consecutive weeks of net outflows and recorded one of their largest inflow days of the quarter in the latest session, bolstering buying demand. Analysts cautioned, however, that the risk of market volatility had not fully receded.

Bitcoin has long been viewed by some investors as inflation-resistant “digital gold,” but its recent performance has more closely resembled that of a volatile risk asset. Its price has moved closely in line with software-stock benchmarks such as the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV), suggesting that selling pressure in U.S. technology shares and private equity markets is spilling into cryptocurrencies.

During U.S. trading on Monday, July 13, Bitcoin briefly rebounded above $65,000, but the rally failed to hold. It retreated to about $65,400 as the broader stock market and software shares declined. Polymarket showed the probability of Bitcoin falling below $55,000 had risen to 72%, reflecting weakening confidence among holders and increased downside risk.