Bitcoin Regains $76,000 as Strong Coinbase Demand Drives Market Recovery

The Coinbase Premium Index is a key gauge of buying demand from major US institutions and large holders, known as whales. It tracks the difference between Bitcoin prices on regulated US exchange Coinbase and those on other exchanges worldwide. A rising premium indicates that US investors are buying aggressively above the global average price. This is often seen as a leading indicator of a bullish crypto market and can play a decisive role in forecasting Bitcoin’s price trajectory.

According to a report released by blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant in mid-July, strong buying by large US investors pushed the Coinbase Premium Index back above its 14-day moving average. The breakout directly helped Bitcoin return to $64,000. Although the premiums for Bitcoin and Ether remain negative, both have rebounded from local lows, indicating that buying momentum is rebuilding and laying the groundwork for a further recovery.

Bitcoin has become more closely correlated with risk assets such as U.S. equities, with oil prices, U.S. Treasury yields and geopolitical developments all influencing investors' risk appetite. Although spot Bitcoin ETFs have continued to record net outflows recently, better-than-expected earnings from NVIDIA provided support for technology stocks and the cryptocurrency market.

As of May 25, oil prices had fallen about 5% in a single day and selling pressure in U.S. Treasuries had eased, helping the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq rebound across the board. Bitcoin rose 0.64% over the previous 24 hours to $77,361, holding above the $77,000 threshold as markets temporarily stabilized.

Bitcoin recently established key support at $75,600, coinciding with a record high for the U.S. S&P 500 and technology-sector earnings that lifted risk appetite. The $80,000 level is seen as the dividing line between bullish and bearish momentum. A decisive break above it would shift the market’s focus to a target of $85,000.

Market tracking on May 20 showed Bitcoin rebounding from a low of $75,600, first reclaiming $77,000 and then rising to about $77,700 intraday. Traders are watching whether it can retake $80,000. Meanwhile, inflows into DOGE and SHIB strengthened, signaling increased short-term speculative demand, though bearish positioning continued to weigh on the market.

Bitcoin had retreated steadily since reaching a record $126,000 in October 2025 and came close to $60,000 at one point in 2026. Buying by US spot Bitcoin ETFs and institutions such as Strategy has therefore become a key indicator of whether market demand can stabilize and whether the bear market may be nearing an end.

On April 14, Bitcoin recovered to $74,000 from a weekend low of $70,500. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $615 million in net inflows last Thursday and Friday, while Strategy spent another $1 billion to buy 13,927 Bitcoin. However, the annualized premium on monthly futures stood at just 2%, below the neutral range of 4% to 8%, leaving the market divided over whether a reversal is underway.

Bitcoin has been correcting for about five months since retreating from its record high of $126,000 in October 2025. Although the market regards it as a scarce asset, its 50-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 remains at 84%. Cointelegraph said that if spot ETF flows are merely following Bitcoin's price, the rebound is not enough to prove the bear market has ended.

Bitcoin briefly climbed above $73,000 and approached $74,000 by March 14, 2026. The U.S. Commerce Department said on March 13 that the economy grew just 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025. CoinGlass data showed spot ETFs recorded $583 million in net inflows over four consecutive days, while a separate analyst estimate put the amount accumulated by Strategy through its STRC instrument at more than $900 million.

The market had been weighed down by a February selloff and extreme pessimism after U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $3.8 billion in net outflows over five consecutive weeks. Crowded leveraged short positions also left the market vulnerable to a short squeeze when prices rebounded. Whether ETF inflows resume has become a key indicator of risk appetite among U.S. institutional investors.

On February 25, Bitcoin rose more than 5% over 24 hours to $67,500 in early U.S. trading. ETH reclaimed $2,000, while major tokens including SOL and DOGE gained more than 10%. CoinGlass recorded more than $307 million in short liquidations. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted net inflows of $506.5 million that day, including $297.4 million for BlackRock’s IBIT.

Bitcoin has fallen 31% over the past six months, while gold rose 18% and the Nasdaq 100 was broadly flat over the same period. Market makers’ risk appetite has yet to recover, particularly after $19 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated on October 10, 2025. Whether the spot-market rebound can turn derivatives sentiment bullish is therefore a key test of the rally’s durability.

Bitcoin climbed as high as $74,500 on Monday, March 16, its highest level in 40 days, as the Nasdaq advanced and markets anticipated Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s GTC 2026 keynote. However, the annualized premium on monthly futures was just 2%, below the neutral range of 4%–8%, while the Deribit options delta skew remained at 13%, showing professional traders were still actively hedging against downside risk.

Bitcoin is highly sensitive to interest-rate and inflation expectations. February’s consumer price index from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics matched market forecasts and did not support a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut. Still, falling oil prices helped ease inflationary pressure and supported risk assets including cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin quickly reversed its overnight losses after the February CPI release, first breaking above $70,100 and then climbing past $71,000. Markets also digested news of a 400 million-barrel oil release. Ether, Solana and Cardano (ADA) rose in tandem, showing little drag from weakness in U.S. stocks.

Institutional capital has become a major driver of Bitcoin prices since the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. An easing of U.S. policy uncertainty, along with gains in U.S. stocks and strong corporate earnings, lifted risk appetite and helped Bitcoin reclaim the $68,000 level.

Bitcoin surged from $62,400 to $68,600 over the past 24 hours, gaining about 9.9% and reaching a weekly high. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs ended five consecutive weeks of net outflows and recorded one of their largest inflow days of the quarter in the latest session, bolstering buying demand. Analysts cautioned, however, that the risk of market volatility had not fully receded.

Bitcoin has failed to reclaim the $70,000 level since its sharp selloff on February 5, 2026, shifting the market’s focus to whether forced selling has subsided. Market maker Wintermute said capital is flowing into defensive and real-world assets, while Matrixport warned that stablecoin supply has stalled, leaving the rebound’s durability dependent on liquidity.

Bitcoin approached $70,000 on February 25 before retreating to about $68,300 in early trading on February 26, after an overnight low of $67,700. It was still up 4.3% on the day. Ether, Solana, Cardano and Dogecoin gained 8.5%, 6.9%, 10.8% and 8.3%, respectively, signaling a shift into high-beta tokens.