JPMorgan Says Bitcoin ‘Debasement Trade’ Is Cooling as Spot ETF Outflows Accelerate

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are a key conduit for institutional capital entering and leaving the crypto market, and their fund flows are widely viewed as a gauge of risk appetite. SoSoValue data showed six consecutive weeks of redemptions brought cumulative net outflows to $5.94 billion. Tagus Capital said the slower pace of de-risking suggests demand is stabilizing but remains fragile.

A June 22, 2026, report showed U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $228 million in net outflows the previous week, down from $315.84 million a week earlier and marking a second straight weekly slowdown. However, the U.S. two-year Treasury yield rose to 4.21%, its highest since February 2025. FactSet forecasts core PCE to rise 0.37% month on month and 3.4% year on year, while expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes have emerged as a fresh headwind.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have served as Wall Street’s main conduit for crypto demand since their January 2024 launch. The sustained withdrawals suggest risk appetite is shifting as AI and semiconductor stocks rally. However, Bloomberg analysts said most existing investors have stayed put and that some of the outflows may reflect the unwinding of arbitrage trades.

The selloff initially set a record with about $2.8 billion in net outflows over nine consecutive trading days, including $1.3 billion in a single week. The streak later extended to 13 trading days, with cumulative outflows reaching $4.4 billion. Bitcoin briefly fell below $70,000, while concerns that Strategy might sell its holdings fueled volatility. Some analysts nevertheless view the persistent outflows as a contrarian indicator that the market may be approaching a local bottom.

The “debasement trade” refers to investors shifting into assets such as gold or Bitcoin to hedge against declining fiat-currency purchasing power, inflation and geopolitical risks. Following an escalation in the Iran conflict, JPMorgan observed that safe-haven allocations were rotating toward Bitcoin. Spot ETFs and CME futures have lowered barriers to institutional participation, making the shift an important sign of digital assets’ move into the mainstream.

On May 7, 2026, a JPMorgan team led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said Bitcoin ETFs had entered a third consecutive month of net inflows in May. They attracted $1.32 billion in March, $2.44 billion in April and another $1.38 billion in early May. Gold ETFs, by comparison, recorded outflows of more than $3 billion in March. If the current pace is maintained, Strategy’s Bitcoin purchases could reach about $30 billion for the full year.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved the first spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, allowing institutions including BlackRock and Fidelity to meet investor demand through regulated products. ETF flows have since become a key gauge of Wall Street’s risk appetite and the durability of Bitcoin’s rally.

The latest data show that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows for three consecutive trading days, totaling more than $490 million. The withdrawals point to a short-term cooling in institutional buying and have raised doubts about the momentum behind BTC’s rally. Although high inflation and rising oil prices are weighing on risk assets, Bitcoin’s fixed supply cap of 21 million coins is still seen as supporting long-term demand.