Bitwise Says Bitcoin Fair Value Could Reach $224,000 as Sovereign Debt Fears Deepen

Bitwise Investments gauges Bitcoin’s valuation using the Mayer Multiple, which measures its price against the 200-day moving average. The indicator is below 1.0, a level historically associated with long-term accumulation zones. Bitcoin is trading at a discount while AI-related stocks such as NVIDIA stand above their long-term trends. Potential fundraising by SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI totaling more than $200 billion could also divert capital from the market.

A June 18, 2026, report said the Federal Reserve had kept rates at 3.5%–3.75% the previous day. Its dot plot showed nine officials expected at least one rate increase this year, while six anticipated two or more. Bitcoin subsequently fell below $64,000. CryptoQuant said realized-cap growth has been in a bearish phase since October 30, 2025, with its seven-day and 59-day averages falling to 13.9 and 19.1, respectively, as of June 17, signaling slower inflows of new capital.

Asset manager Bitwise likened Bitcoin to a macroeconomic “canary in the coal mine.” Because it trades around the clock and sits at the leading edge of the risk curve, it often reflects shifts in global liquidity and financial conditions before traditional assets such as stocks. The recent decline therefore signals more than weakness in crypto markets and could foreshadow a broader shift toward risk-off sentiment.

Bitwise said on June 9, 2026, that Bitcoin had fallen from a high of $126,000 and at one point touched a cycle low of $58,000, recently trading near $62,000. Strong U.S. employment data reduced expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stood at about 4.53%. Stablecoin reserves on exchanges totaled roughly $72 billion, including $57.7 billion in USDT and $12 billion in USDC, representing potential buying power.

Bitcoin has long been viewed as “digital gold,” competing with gold and other global stores of value. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved spot Bitcoin ETFs, including Bitwise’s product, on January 10, 2024, giving pension funds, asset managers and other institutions access to Bitcoin through regulated investment vehicles and broadening its potential funding base.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan recently said Bitcoin could surpass $1 million within the next 10 years if it captures about 17% of the global store-of-value market. He said institutional investors continued to hold even when Bitcoin fell 50%, while professional investors are gradually increasing portfolio allocations as volatility declines.

Asset manager Bitwise sees bitcoin as both a “digital gold” store of value and a payment instrument for global settlement. As distrust of traditional monetary systems and sovereign credit grows, bitcoin's scarcity, cross-border reach and independence from any single sovereign authority could expand its long-term demand and valuation potential.

According to reports available as of July 20, 2026, a Bitwise executive estimated that bitcoin could be worth as much as $2.3 million per coin if it captures demand for both gold-like wealth storage and global settlement. Bitwise also expects geopolitical shifts and faster integration of AI technology to drive a new wave of innovation in cryptocurrencies, token-based applications and altcoins.