SpaceX Valuation Tops $2 Trillion as Orbital AI Spending Divides Analysts

SpaceX has built its growth story around the Starlink satellite network and commercial launch services, using reusable rockets to lower the cost of putting infrastructure into orbit. Early investor Peter Diamandis says markets still substantially undervalue that platform and sees a high probability that the company will eventually exceed a $10 trillion valuation, a scale that would move it far beyond conventional aerospace benchmarks.

The company’s latest ambitions extend into AI infrastructure. SpaceX has signed large AI computing contracts and is planning chip-fabrication capacity and orbital AI data centers, though counterparties, contract values and construction dates have not been disclosed. Elon Musk has predicted that AI could account for 99% of SpaceX’s valuation within five years, with launch systems, chips and computing capacity combined in an unusually integrated operating model.

SpaceX’s post-IPO performance has become a key test of investor appetite for richly valued commercial-space and artificial-intelligence businesses. The company’s premium had reflected expectations for its launch operations, satellite network and place in the broader AI ecosystem. Geopolitical uncertainty, concern over technology valuations and the prospect of newly unlocked shares are now prompting investors to reassess those assumptions.

SpaceX shares have fallen about 20% from their IPO price, wiping more than $1.2 trillion from the company’s market value, according to the latest report. Short sellers have amassed nearly $8 billion in paper gains. Morgan Stanley warned that a drop below $100 would effectively imply that investors assign no value to SpaceX’s AI business, while the share lockup expiration could add further selling pressure.

SpaceX, a leader in aerospace and satellite communications, has long drawn scrutiny over its heavy capital spending. The convergence of the space economy and artificial intelligence has given the company a substantial narrative premium. But as investors take a harder look at the monetization paths for its AI and Starlink initiatives, the giant's valuation is being tested. Its share price has also become an important gauge of the space industry's prospects for global technology and financial markets.

SpaceX shares recently fell below their $135 offering price for the first time, prompting a sharp surge in short positions and exposing the stock to potential selling pressure from a post-earnings lockup expiration. UBS nevertheless bucked the trend with a buy rating, citing prospects following Starship's 13th test flight and setting a $210 price target. Markets are closely watching whether SpaceX can use its strengths in Starship and AI computing to ease the financial strain from its heavy capital spending.

SpaceX has built a global aerospace business spanning rocket launches and the Starlink satellite network. Its acquisition of Elon Musk’s AI startup xAI has further integrated its aerospace, communications and artificial-intelligence operations. A listing at a valuation above $1.75 trillion would vie to become the largest IPO on record and could reshape capital flows among U.S. technology giants.

SpaceX initially planned to confidentially file for an IPO as early as March 2026, targeting a valuation of $1.75 trillion. The latest related reports, however, said the company listed at $135 a share and raised $75 billion. Its shares gained 19% on their first day, lifting its market capitalization to $2.2 trillion. Morningstar valued the stock at just $63 a share, highlighting the sharp divergence in market views.

SpaceX operates rocket-launch and Starlink satellite-internet businesses while also pursuing AI-related initiatives. Its operations involve U.S. national security and are subject to International Traffic in Arms Regulations, or ITAR. Excluding capital from China and Hong Kong signals that U.S. technology and aerospace companies are moving faster to reduce participation by investors from those markets, reshaping funding sources for major Silicon Valley startups.

As of July 20, 2026, SpaceX had instructed its IPO underwriters to reject subscriptions from investors in China and Hong Kong. The listing date, fundraising target and underwriting syndicate have yet to be announced. Investment banking analysts view AI technology and its growth potential as a key pillar supporting a SpaceX valuation of up to about $1.8 trillion.