US Senate Unanimously Bans Senators and Staff From Prediction-Market Betting

Prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket allow users to trade event contracts tied to election and policy outcomes. Because members of Congress have access to nonpublic government information, placing such wagers could create conflicts of interest and raise insider-trading concerns. Congress is therefore seeking to extend existing financial-trading ethics rules to the rapidly growing prediction-market industry.

On June 18, 2026, Wisconsin Republican Representative Bryan Steil, chairman of the House Administration Committee, introduced the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act. It would bar members of Congress, their spouses and dependent children from trading event contracts involving government policies, actions and political outcomes. Violators would have to pay the greater of $2,000 or 10% of the transaction value, plus their net profit. The bill does not cover White House officials.

Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi allow users to wager on political and military outcomes through event contracts. Participation by officials with access to classified information could enable insider profits and even distort wartime decisions. The controversy arose after an account wagered on Nicolás Maduro’s removal before a U.S. military raid in Venezuela in January and made more than $400,000.

On March 17, 2026, Democratic Representative Greg Casar and Senator Chris Murphy introduced the BETS OFF Act, which would prohibit officials from using nonpublic information to bet on sensitive government actions. On March 29, more than 40 Democratic lawmakers also wrote to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Office of Government Ethics, seeking executive-branch guidance and an investigation into nearly $1 million in suspicious profits made before the Iran attack.

Prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket allow users to trade on sports outcomes through CFTC-regulated “event contracts,” potentially bypassing state gambling licenses, age restrictions and consumer-protection rules. Sports have become a major source of trading activity for the platforms. The clash between federal derivatives oversight and state gambling jurisdiction is now central to whether the industry can continue expanding.

On March 23, 2026, Democratic Senator Adam Schiff and Republican Senator John Curtis introduced the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, which would prohibit CFTC-registered operators from listing contracts resembling sports bets or casino games. Trading volume in contracts on that month's March Madness champion exceeded $100 million, while Super Bowl-related trading volume surpassed $1 billion in 2026.