Prediction Market Revenue Could Top $10 Billion by 2030, Citizens Bank Says
Prediction markets allow participants to trade contracts tied to the outcomes of elections, policy decisions, economic data releases and other events, with prices reflecting the market’s assessment of the probability of an outcome. Citizens Bank said institutional investors are entering as both data consumers and liquidity providers, gradually turning prediction markets into an emerging asset class for hedging discrete event risk.
A new Citizens Bank report showed that prediction markets’ annualized revenue has risen from $2 billion in December last year to $3 billion currently, an increase of $1 billion, or 50%, over a short period. The bank estimates that expanding participation by professional capital and growing hedging demand could push the industry’s annual revenue above $10 billion by 2030, about 3.3 times its current level.
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The history behind this eventPolymarket Tops $1 Million in Daily Revenue, Annualized Run Rate Could Reach $338 Million
Polymarket is an onchain prediction market built on Polygon where users trade on the outcomes of political, economic, technology and other events. The platform generates revenue from trading fees. Its revenue surge suggests prediction markets may become a sustainable crypto finance business rather than relying solely on election-driven interest, though regulatory pressure in the United States, Europe and Argentina remains a major risk.
On March 30, 2026, Polymarket expanded taker fees beyond crypto and sports to markets covering finance, politics, economics, culture, weather and technology. DeFiLlama data showed daily fees rising from about $363,000 to more than $1 million on both April 1 and April 2, putting the early annualized estimate at about $338 million. Fees totaled $7.1 million in the first week of the second quarter, accounting for 96.8% of all onchain prediction-market fees.
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