Analysis Points to a ‘Textbook Bitcoin Bottom’ Taking Shape
Near the end of previous Bitcoin bear markets, the percentile position of its price relative to the 200-week simple moving average has often been used to identify macro reversals. Quantitative analyst Frank said the measure has now returned to the ninth-percentile reversal zone, which also coincided with the March 2020 pandemic crash and the 2022 bear-market low. Whether Bitcoin is forming a bottom is therefore shaping market expectations for a new cycle.
Cointelegraph reported on July 8, 2026, that Frank believed several bottoming signals had emerged. As Bitcoin rebounded toward $65,000, short-term holders who had owned the cryptocurrency for less than six months took profits, while STH-SOPR turned positive. However, on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant cautioned that the indicator had not yet fallen to around 0.93, a level associated with strong bottoms in the past, meaning another bout of capitulation selling could not be ruled out.
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The history behind this eventBitcoin Metrics Suggest February's Slide to $60,000 May Have Marked the Bottom
Bitcoin cycle bottoms typically require confirmation across several on-chain and derivatives indicators. Realized cap reflects holders' cost basis, RHODL measures the balance between long- and short-term holders, and funding rates capture sentiment in perpetual futures markets. A simultaneous stabilization across all three can therefore provide an important signal.
The latest analysis suggests Bitcoin's selloff to about $60,000 in February may have established a cyclical bottom. Realized cap remained stable at the time, RHODL readings entered a bottoming range and perpetual futures funding rates turned negative. Those signals suggest leveraged long positions were flushed out and that selling pressure may have been released in a concentrated burst.
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