Bitcoin Metrics Suggest February's Slide to $60,000 May Have Marked the Bottom

Near the end of previous Bitcoin bear markets, the percentile position of its price relative to the 200-week simple moving average has often been used to identify macro reversals. Quantitative analyst Frank said the measure has now returned to the ninth-percentile reversal zone, which also coincided with the March 2020 pandemic crash and the 2022 bear-market low. Whether Bitcoin is forming a bottom is therefore shaping market expectations for a new cycle.

Cointelegraph reported on July 8, 2026, that Frank believed several bottoming signals had emerged. As Bitcoin rebounded toward $65,000, short-term holders who had owned the cryptocurrency for less than six months took profits, while STH-SOPR turned positive. However, on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant cautioned that the indicator had not yet fallen to around 0.93, a level associated with strong bottoms in the past, meaning another bout of capitulation selling could not be ruled out.

Bitcoin has fallen about 50% from its peak this cycle and is now trading near $64,000 as the market weighs whether the prolonged correction has ended. The cycle bottom is critical to entry timing and risk allocation, but Standard Chartered and Galaxy Research remain sharply divided in their readings of price action and market indicators.

Standard Chartered believes Bitcoin hit its cycle bottom in June 2026 and that the area around $64,000 could provide support. Galaxy Research and other institutions said market signals have yet to reset fully, with deleveraging still incomplete and investor sentiment not sufficiently cooled. They therefore see a risk of further price declines.

Bitcoin rebounded after the crypto market’s deleveraging in 2022, but its price remains sensitive to capital flows and technical support levels. The pseudonymous analyst PlanB assesses market cycles using realized price and the 200-week moving average. Investors often use these indicators to gauge whether a bear market has bottomed, drawing attention to the latest warning.

Bitcoin fell 20.5% in June and ended the month at $58,526, marking its worst June performance since June 2022. PlanB said the price remained above realized price but was below the 200-week moving average, suggesting a bottom might not yet have formed. Bitcoin could fall further to $52,000, the analyst warned.

The “realized price” represents the average on-chain acquisition cost of all bitcoin in circulation, and Glassnode uses it to gauge whether holders overall are sitting on losses. Bitcoin briefly fell below this level before bottoming in 2011, 2015, 2018–2019, March 2020 and the 2022 bear market. The measure is therefore viewed as an important gauge of market capitulation and cyclical lows.

CoinDesk reported on June 23, 2026, that bitcoin was testing its 200-week moving average at about $62,400. If that level fails, the next threshold would be Glassnode’s estimated realized price of $53,457, more than 15% below the level at the time. Whales holding 10,000 to 100,000 BTC have an estimated cost basis of about $54,300, and the market could find a bottom in the $50,000–$54,000 range.

Bitcoin fell to about $59,000 at one point in 2026, leaving the market focused on whether $63,000 could shift from resistance to support. Cointelegraph said the weekly relative strength index (RSI) formed a higher low as the price hit a new low, resembling the bullish divergence seen from late 2022 to early 2023. However, the bottoming signal indicates only that selling pressure is easing and does not yet confirm a trend reversal.

A June 22, 2026, report showed that Bitcoin had closed above $63,000 for three consecutive weeks. CryptoQuant said futures open interest fell 19.5%, from $25.96 billion on June 1 to $20.89 billion on June 21, while funding rates declined from 0.1% to 0.02%. SoSoValue data showed spot ETFs recorded $540 million in net outflows over the previous two weeks, a marked slowdown from $5.5 billion over the preceding nearly one-month period.

Bitcoin’s 50-week and 100-week moving averages are widely viewed as key indicators of its long-term cycle. Since 2015, a specific signal formed by the two averages has accurately coincided with every major market bottom, making it a common gauge for whether a bear market is nearing its end.

The latest data show that the long-term indicator has yet to flash a bottom signal, suggesting the market may not have definitively bottomed. Meanwhile, the U.S. government recently transferred about $606,000 worth of Bitcoin linked to the 2016 Bitfinex hack to Coinbase Prime, drawing attention to how the assets may ultimately be handled.

Bitcoin prices often move through bull and bear cycles shaped by halving cycles and market liquidity. On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant uses indicators including the MVRV Z-score to measure how far market value has diverged from realized value, helping it assess pressure from investor losses and identify long-term bottom zones.

CryptoQuant's latest analysis estimates that Bitcoin could face another shakeout in the second half of 2026 and hit an “iron bottom” of about $55,000 around December. It describes the current market as the middle of a grueling marathon and says another round of position-clearing is needed before a subsequent rebound can begin.

The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio measures the relative strength of the two scarce assets. GeoMetric said the past three bear markets in the ratio each lasted 12–14 months and produced declines of 75%–84%. The current cycle has fallen 81% over roughly 13 months, putting it near the bottom of its historical cycle. A reversal could therefore shape the pace at which capital rotates from gold into crypto assets.

Cointelegraph cited TradingView data on March 20 showing that the BTC/GOLD weekly RSI had recovered to 33 from 21 in mid-February, while the MACD was nearing a bullish crossover. If Bitcoin holds $68,000–$70,000, it could test $76,000–$80,000. CoinDesk reported on March 25 that the ratio had rebounded 30% from about 12 ounces to nearly 16 ounces.

Bitcoin is often viewed as a leading indicator of global risk appetite because it trades around the clock, is highly liquid and is sensitive to interest rates and market sentiment. Historical trends show that Bitcoin has peaked ahead of the S&P 500 several times. Its fall toward $60,000 in early 2026 was therefore more than a cryptocurrency correction; it also sent a warning to global equity markets.

Bitcoin tumbled to about $60,000 in early 2026, followed by corrections in the S&P 500 and global risk assets, consistent with the crypto market’s tendency to reflect capital outflows first. Recent reports suggest the market still needs a reset before the next bull run, including reducing excessive leverage, weeding out speculative projects and rebuilding capital and investor confidence.

Bitcoin remains under bear-market pressure, though 10x Research says its decline is gradually slowing. Stronger ETF inflows, compressed volatility and easing selling pressure suggest near-term momentum is beginning to stabilize. Those signals, however, are not yet sufficient to demonstrate a structural reversal, leaving investors exposed to further declines.

As of July 20, 2026, 10x Research identified $62,500 as a key support level for Bitcoin. Holding above it could lay the groundwork for a subsequent rebound. Analysts said several recent indicators have improved, but Bitcoin has not yet formally broken out of its bear-market structure and needs further confirmation from price action and fund flows.