Bitcoin’s Four-Year Adoption Trend Points to $76,000, Analysis Says

After a prolonged period of sharp volatility in crypto markets, turning points in Bitcoin's bull and bear cycles remain a key focus for investors and financial institutions worldwide. Accurately gauging when a bear market is nearing its end is critical to capital flows across digital assets and directly affects when investors reposition and how much risk they are willing to take. Analysts' assessments of the market cycle therefore serve as important benchmarks in finance and technology.

Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at financial research firm Real Vision, said in a recent report that Bitcoin's downward momentum has begun to ease, suggesting the market may be entering the latter half of the bear cycle. Although current technical indicators and trends remain bearish, he explicitly forecast that Bitcoin could recover and reach $250,000 within the next two to three years as downward pressure subsides.

Bitcoin’s “realized price” reflects holders’ average on-chain cost basis and is widely used to gauge whether investors are willing to defend profitable positions. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode said the cost-basis range for holders who have owned Bitcoin for three to six months has become the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears. A break below it could mean the recent rebound is merely a pause in the decline.

On May 31, 2026, Bitcoin rebounded 2.5% from around $72,500 and recovered to $74,000 on Sunday. Glassnode data identified $71,400 as the key near-term cost-basis support, with the next target at $78,200. Following similar breakouts since 2017, Bitcoin has gained an average of 36.6% over six months, with a 79.2% probability of rising, suggesting it could reach $101,100 by year-end.

Bitcoin's latest rebound has been supported by inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and favorable macroeconomic developments. However, the price remains capped by a descending bear-market trendline extending from its previous high. Breaking that resistance would be a key signal that the market is reversing its medium-term weakness and that bulls are regaining control.

As of July 20, Bitcoin had pulled back after hitting the bear-market trendline during its advance, temporarily undermining analysts' $88,000 target. Although ETF buying and the macro environment remain broadly positive, the next leg of the bull market could be delayed unless the price decisively breaks above the trendline and holds there.

Bitcoin reclaimed the $70,000 level as institutional buying through U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs picked up, bringing some ETF investors close to breakeven. The market views $68,000 as the key medium-term dividing line between bullish and bearish momentum. Whether Bitcoin can hold above it will help determine if the rebound extends into April.

Bitcoin recently traded above $70,000 at one point during the New York session, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $500 million in net inflows in a single day. Around March 11, analysts said that if the weekly close continued to hold above the $68,000 trendline, a break above $72,000 could quickly propel Bitcoin into the major short-liquidation zone at $80,000.