Bitcoin May Be Nearing Late Stages of Bear Market, Analyst Says

Bitcoin’s halving, which occurs once every four years, has historically preceded major bull-market peaks. But the full-scale entry of Wall Street institutional capital and the successive launch of spot ETFs are accelerating Bitcoin’s transition from a highly volatile speculative instrument into a mature, liquid asset. This sweeping change in market structure is prompting investors to reassess the predictive power of the traditional halving cycle.

Although analysts have optimistically forecast that Bitcoin could reach new highs of $300,000–$500,000 in 2029, historical halving data show diminishing gains with each cycle. Bitcoin surged 91-fold in its first cycle, 30-fold in its second and just sixfold in its third. With the multiples at each bull-market peak falling significantly, data experts warn that the era of gains measured in dozens of times may have ended after Bitcoin’s fourth halving in 2024.

Wall Street investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald said its analysis of Bitcoin's historical trading cycles suggests the current bear market may be entering its final stretch. The assessment could influence capital allocation and reflects a shift in market attention from short-term prices to whether blockchain usage can generate sustained demand for tokens.

Cantor Fitzgerald's latest analysis said Bitcoin could bottom in the coming months, around October 2026, but gave no specific price or value target. Its analysts also expect the next winners to be networks capable of converting real-world usage into lasting token demand. Digital-asset treasury companies, meanwhile, are evolving into bridges between traditional finance and crypto markets.

Bitcoin prices and adoption are often assessed through the roughly four-year halving cycle. The “four-year adoption structure” measures demand growth through a long-term trendline rather than focusing solely on short-term price movements. Research compiled by Cointelegraph suggests the structure remains intact, making it an important gauge of the current bear market’s progress and potential price levels ahead.

As of July 20, 2026, analyst David Eng said Bitcoin remained compressed near its lows but had not broken from the trajectory of previous cycles. The four-year adoption trendline pointed to $76,400, while Eng estimated that more than 70% of the current bear market had run its course. The market could remain volatile in the near term, but its long-term structure has not been breached.

The market has remained focused on the risk of a pullback since Bitcoin reached an all-time high of about $126,000 in October 2025. Crypto analyst Doctor Profit, who predicted that peak, is now warning about a technical pattern on the daily chart. Bear flags typically signal that a decline could resume after a period of consolidation, drawing investors’ attention.

As of July 20, 2026, Doctor Profit said Bitcoin’s daily chart was forming a large bearish flag. If the price breaks lower and confirms the pattern, the initial target range would be $54,000–$56,000. If selling pressure persists, Bitcoin could subsequently test the $40,000–$50,000 range in search of a bottom.

Bitcoin is closing in on the $60,000 level in a bear market, with large bids and asks on exchange order books potentially becoming targets for a liquidity sweep. CoinGlass data shows that $50,000–$60,000 is the main liquidity cluster. A drop below support followed by a swift rebound could establish the macro bottom for this bear market and catch short sellers off guard.

Cointelegraph cited pseudonymous trader Killa on June 19, 2026, as saying Bitcoin could sweep liquidity below $60,000 in the third quarter, no later than September, without necessarily reaching the $50,000 level widely targeted by the market. Daan Crypto Trades said bulls must defend $61,000–$62,000, while Exitpump observed on June 18 that short-term bearish positioning on Binance was becoming more aggressive.

Bitcoin's supply schedule is shaped by block-reward halvings that occur about once every four years, and markets often use post-halving cycles to estimate shifts between bull and bear markets. CryptoQuant onchain data show that cyclical bottoms in historical price patterns have often occurred between September and November. Whether the current downturn will persist through the end of 2026 has therefore become an important factor in investors' risk assessments.

Several analysts have recently used historical halving cycles and price models to estimate that Bitcoin may not bottom until the fourth quarter of 2026, with October seen as a potential turning point. Forecasts vary by model: more conservative estimates put the bottom at about $40,000–$50,000, while a bearish scenario points to a possible drop to $30,000. The main market consensus centers on $30,000–$45,000.

Atlas Capital was co-founded by Nouriel Roubini, the economist known as “Dr. Doom” who warned of the 2008 financial crisis. CEO Reza Bundy views Bitcoin as a risk asset that behaves more like technology stocks. His forecast underscores the cryptocurrency’s continued sensitivity to equity markets, global liquidity and confidence in fiat currencies.

Speaking at the Proof of Talk conference in Paris on June 4, 2026, Bundy said Bitcoin could fall as much as 70% over the next six months to $26,000–$30,000 if equities undergo a severe correction. He nevertheless remained bullish on long-term demand, forecasting that Bitcoin could eventually reach $150,000–$500,000.

Bitcoin initially rebounded from its 50-month exponential moving average (EMA) during the 2022 bear market before breaking below the long-term support level. The moving average has therefore become an important dividing line for gauging whether the bear market is deepening. Analyst Rekt Capital believes the 2026 price structure is following almost the same pattern. If Bitcoin first forms a lower high and then loses the level on a retest, the broader downtrend could continue.

TradingView data showed Bitcoin fell to $65,362 on Bitstamp on June 3, its lowest level since early April. Rekt Capital put the 50-month EMA at $66,628. Trader Leviathan identified $60,000 as a critical line of defense, while Killa said Bitcoin could consolidate between $63,000 and $65,000 in the coming weeks, with a break below that range potentially deepening the decline.

Bitcoin remains under bear-market pressure, though 10x Research says its decline is gradually slowing. Stronger ETF inflows, compressed volatility and easing selling pressure suggest near-term momentum is beginning to stabilize. Those signals, however, are not yet sufficient to demonstrate a structural reversal, leaving investors exposed to further declines.

As of July 20, 2026, 10x Research identified $62,500 as a key support level for Bitcoin. Holding above it could lay the groundwork for a subsequent rebound. Analysts said several recent indicators have improved, but Bitcoin has not yet formally broken out of its bear-market structure and needs further confirmation from price action and fund flows.