Analyst ‘Madman’ Sees Bitcoin Challenging $78,000 in March

Bitcoin is widely viewed as a volatile risk asset, and its price often moves in tandem with U.S. technology stocks and the Nasdaq. The $60,000 level is both a key psychological threshold and an important test of whether the bullish structure can endure. Analysts also use the 200-week moving average as a major technical gauge of the long-term trend.

Over a recent weekend, Bitcoin held above $60,000 and showed relative resilience despite a marked decline in the Nasdaq, raising expectations that risk capital could return. Analysts said that if BTC continues to hold firmly above its 200-week moving average, it could first test $70,000 and then potentially reach $92,630.

Bitcoin’s “realized price” reflects holders’ average on-chain cost basis and is widely used to gauge whether investors are willing to defend profitable positions. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode said the cost-basis range for holders who have owned Bitcoin for three to six months has become the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears. A break below it could mean the recent rebound is merely a pause in the decline.

On May 31, 2026, Bitcoin rebounded 2.5% from around $72,500 and recovered to $74,000 on Sunday. Glassnode data identified $71,400 as the key near-term cost-basis support, with the next target at $78,200. Following similar breakouts since 2017, Bitcoin has gained an average of 36.6% over six months, with a 79.2% probability of rising, suggesting it could reach $101,100 by year-end.

Bitcoin has rebounded to $78,000, supported by continued accumulation among institutional investors and steady inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Whether the rally can continue will hinge on whether spot buying can further strengthen confidence in the near-term upside.

The latest market data show Bitcoin has retaken $78,000, but Deribit options pricing implies only about a 25% chance that BTC will top $84,000 by the end of May. Despite the stronger spot price, derivatives traders have yet to make substantial bets on further near-term gains, reflecting a relatively cautious market stance.

Bitcoin reclaimed the $70,000 level as institutional buying through U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs picked up, bringing some ETF investors close to breakeven. The market views $68,000 as the key medium-term dividing line between bullish and bearish momentum. Whether Bitcoin can hold above it will help determine if the rebound extends into April.

Bitcoin recently traded above $70,000 at one point during the New York session, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $500 million in net inflows in a single day. Around March 11, analysts said that if the weekly close continued to hold above the $68,000 trendline, a break above $72,000 could quickly propel Bitcoin into the major short-liquidation zone at $80,000.