Bitcoin Retakes $78,000, but Options Price Just 25% Chance of Topping $84,000 in May

Bitcoin has returned above $70,000 after months of volatile trading, reviving debate over whether the recovery marks a durable turn or another relief rally. Prediction markets such as Myriad and Polymarket are useful sentiment gauges because participants put money behind specific outcomes. Their hesitation matters: a spot-price breakout can improve technical momentum, but it does not by itself establish broad conviction that Bitcoin’s next major move will be higher.

On Thursday, Aug. 20, Bitcoin climbed above $71,556, extending Wednesday’s sharp advance and reaching its highest level in several months. Yet traders did not fully embrace the rally. Myriad’s contract remained roughly evenly split over whether Bitcoin would first rise to $84,000 or fall to $55,000, while positioning on Polymarket also showed limited confidence in sustained upside. The divergence suggests the price surge has outpaced expectations, leaving the market divided over whether momentum can carry Bitcoin toward its next bullish target.

Bitcoin is widely viewed as a gauge of global risk appetite, while the area around $77,000 also overlaps with the cost basis of short-term holders. Whether it can sustain a breakout has implications for spot ETFs, derivatives and onchain positioning. Checkonchain said more than 15% of the circulating supply was acquired between $74,000 and $83,000, making pullback risk a particular concern around this dense zone of underwater holdings.

Bitcoin briefly approached $77,500 on May 1. Open interest in Deribit put options with a $76,000 strike and a June 26 expiry rose 22.5%. Santiment data also showed that more than $770 million in BTC flowed onto exchanges during the previous week. By May 25, weekly net inflows stood at about 18,000 BTC, leaving the rebound exposed to potential selling pressure.

Bitcoin recently established key support at $75,600, coinciding with a record high for the U.S. S&P 500 and technology-sector earnings that lifted risk appetite. The $80,000 level is seen as the dividing line between bullish and bearish momentum. A decisive break above it would shift the market’s focus to a target of $85,000.

Market tracking on May 20 showed Bitcoin rebounding from a low of $75,600, first reclaiming $77,000 and then rising to about $77,700 intraday. Traders are watching whether it can retake $80,000. Meanwhile, inflows into DOGE and SHIB strengthened, signaling increased short-term speculative demand, though bearish positioning continued to weigh on the market.

Bitcoin has risen from about $63,000 to above $80,000 over the past three months, reclaiming Glassnode’s True Market Mean of $78,200 and the short-term holder cost basis of $79,100. That has put most active investors back in profit and made the Active Realized Price of $85,200 the next key resistance level.

Bitcoin traded at about $80,800 on May 7, 2026. Bitfinex said futures funding rates had shifted from negative to neutral or slightly positive, while Glassnode estimated that roughly $2 billion in short gamma exposure near $82,000 could fuel further gains. On May 6, Ondo Finance, JPMorgan Kinexys, Mastercard and Ripple also completed a cross-border redemption of OUSG through the XRP Ledger, settling the transaction in under five seconds.

Bitcoin has not posted an equally strong 28-day return since April 2025. The price has now reclaimed a key trend line, while a market sentiment index has risen to a three-month high. The move is significant because spot buying and derivatives capital are returning in tandem, suggesting the rally is not being driven solely by a short-term squeeze.

Bitcoin climbed as high as $79,472 on Wednesday, approaching the $80,000 threshold and setting a new monthly high. Market data showed simultaneous increases in BTC derivatives open interest and a positioning index, indicating an influx of fresh capital. With the price holding above $77,000, traders continued to add bullish positions.

Bitcoin options reflect traders' price bets and hedging needs, making them a key gauge of market sentiment. Data from on-chain options platform Derive.xyz show capital shifting toward positions that would benefit from BTC breaking above $80,000. The move signals growing confidence in further gains as the market's focus shifts from guarding against losses to chasing a rally.

The latest options pricing from Derive.xyz puts Bitcoin's probability of breaking above $80,000 by the end of June at about 35%. Traders are also actively buying bullish positions with strike prices above $80,000. As demand for downside protection weakens, some analysts say BTC could challenge $100,000 in June if the rally continues.

Bitcoin reclaimed the $70,000 level as institutional buying through U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs picked up, bringing some ETF investors close to breakeven. The market views $68,000 as the key medium-term dividing line between bullish and bearish momentum. Whether Bitcoin can hold above it will help determine if the rebound extends into April.

Bitcoin recently traded above $70,000 at one point during the New York session, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $500 million in net inflows in a single day. Around March 11, analysts said that if the weekly close continued to hold above the $68,000 trendline, a break above $72,000 could quickly propel Bitcoin into the major short-liquidation zone at $80,000.

Bitcoin prices are often influenced by major options expiries and strike levels, while position adjustments around the end-March settlement could amplify market volatility. The analyst known as “Madman” used key technical levels to assess the outlook, with Bitcoin’s ability to hold $74,000 and $78,000 serving as an important gauge of whether bullish momentum can continue.

In his latest analysis, Madman said Bitcoin could remain strong if it retakes $74,000 after the end-March options settlement and then breaks above $78,000. He said the chances of Bitcoin challenging $78,000 within March were “quite high.” The assessment remains a market forecast, however, and investors should remain alert to post-settlement volatility and the risk of a price pullback.

Bitcoin returned to $70,000 and US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded renewed inflows, but rising risks from the war in the Middle East and weaker US labor-market data fueled risk aversion and curbed the rally. The probability of a March interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve also fell below 1%, leaving traders cautious about a near-term break above the previous high.

The latest derivatives pricing showed that professional traders saw a less than 17% chance of Bitcoin breaking above $78,000 by the end of March. Even with the cryptocurrency holding near $70,000, ETF buying has yet to translate into clear breakout momentum. Markets remain focused on developments in the war, US employment data and the Fed's interest-rate path.

Most investors do not view Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset, and it remains vulnerable to selling during tariff disputes and stock-market volatility. History shows, however, that it often rebounds sharply when liquidity conditions ease. The Trump administration announced “reciprocal tariffs” on April 2, 2025, and imposed additional tariffs on 75 countries on April 9, with the rate on China reaching 34%. Bitcoin fell to $74,600 before rebounding 38% over the following month.

Cointelegraph reported on February 23 that Bitcoin had traded below $75,000 for 18 consecutive days and briefly retested $64,200 as global equities declined. The February 6 low of $60,200 may have marked the cycle bottom. HashRateIndex data showed that Bitcoin’s hash rate had recovered its 25% January decline, while the latest CFTC report showed that large speculators had shifted from net short to net long positions in CME futures.