Prominent Bitcoin Miner Sees BTC Sliding Another 30% to $44,000 by Year-End

Bitcoin’s boom-and-bust cycles are often marked by capitulation, when mounting losses and fear drive investors to sell aggressively. Michael Terpin, founder of Transform Ventures and a longtime cryptocurrency investor, views that phase as a key signal that a bear market is nearing its end. He says Bitcoin has yet to exhibit the type of sustained selling pressure associated with a durable bottom.

Terpin said in his latest commentary that Bitcoin could fall 66% from its record high to about $43,500 before finding a floor, implying a further decline of roughly 30%. He added that a genuine bottom would not be followed by a rapid rebound, warning that investors may face continued downward pressure. The supplied report did not specify the date of his comments.

Bitcoin is closing in on the $60,000 level in a bear market, with large bids and asks on exchange order books potentially becoming targets for a liquidity sweep. CoinGlass data shows that $50,000–$60,000 is the main liquidity cluster. A drop below support followed by a swift rebound could establish the macro bottom for this bear market and catch short sellers off guard.

Cointelegraph cited pseudonymous trader Killa on June 19, 2026, as saying Bitcoin could sweep liquidity below $60,000 in the third quarter, no later than September, without necessarily reaching the $50,000 level widely targeted by the market. Daan Crypto Trades said bulls must defend $61,000–$62,000, while Exitpump observed on June 18 that short-term bearish positioning on Binance was becoming more aggressive.

Bitcoin's supply schedule is shaped by block-reward halvings that occur about once every four years, and markets often use post-halving cycles to estimate shifts between bull and bear markets. CryptoQuant onchain data show that cyclical bottoms in historical price patterns have often occurred between September and November. Whether the current downturn will persist through the end of 2026 has therefore become an important factor in investors' risk assessments.

Several analysts have recently used historical halving cycles and price models to estimate that Bitcoin may not bottom until the fourth quarter of 2026, with October seen as a potential turning point. Forecasts vary by model: more conservative estimates put the bottom at about $40,000–$50,000, while a bearish scenario points to a possible drop to $30,000. The main market consensus centers on $30,000–$45,000.

Bitcoin has repeatedly fallen about 80% to 85% from its peaks during bull-bear cycles. After reaching $69,000 in 2021, it later sank as low as $15,600. ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood believes growing institutional adoption and maturing market infrastructure have transformed Bitcoin from an emerging technology into a mature asset class and monetary system, reducing the risk of extreme crashes.

On April 1, 2026, Wood told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that even a 50% decline from Bitcoin’s peak would be an improvement over its previous crashes of 85% to 95%. Glassnode said Bitcoin’s maximum drawdown from its October 2025 high of $126,200 was 52%. The projected 2026 bottom of $34,000 came from analyst Tony Severino, not Wood.