ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood Says Bitcoin Is Done With Crashes of 85% or More

Jiang Zhuoer is a prominent Chinese Bitcoin miner and the founder of the LeBit mining pool, whose market-cycle forecasts are closely watched by crypto investors. He uses Strategy’s market net asset value, or mNAV, to gauge market premiums and risk, and views the metric as an important indicator of whether Bitcoin is approaching a bear-market bottom.

Jiang forecasts that the current bear market will bottom in the fourth quarter of 2026, with Bitcoin potentially falling another roughly 30% by year-end to a low of $42,000–$44,000. He said Strategy’s mNAV is already approaching its low from the 2022 bear-market cycle, leading him to conclude that the market still has further to fall.

Bitcoin is closing in on the $60,000 level in a bear market, with large bids and asks on exchange order books potentially becoming targets for a liquidity sweep. CoinGlass data shows that $50,000–$60,000 is the main liquidity cluster. A drop below support followed by a swift rebound could establish the macro bottom for this bear market and catch short sellers off guard.

Cointelegraph cited pseudonymous trader Killa on June 19, 2026, as saying Bitcoin could sweep liquidity below $60,000 in the third quarter, no later than September, without necessarily reaching the $50,000 level widely targeted by the market. Daan Crypto Trades said bulls must defend $61,000–$62,000, while Exitpump observed on June 18 that short-term bearish positioning on Binance was becoming more aggressive.

Bitcoin’s price cycles are often assessed in relation to its halving events, which occur roughly every four years. The latest halving took place on April 20, 2024, reducing the block reward to 3.125 BTC. Whether the cycle persists shapes investors’ expectations for bull-bear turning points and longer-term highs.

Trader Bob Loukas said Bitcoin’s current trajectory remains closely aligned with its traditional four-year cycle and could retreat to a mid-cycle low of about $53,000 before challenging an all-time high in 2028. The market is still watching whether $60,000 can hold, while price movements across previous cycles have shown a high degree of similarity.

Bitcoin's supply schedule is shaped by block-reward halvings that occur about once every four years, and markets often use post-halving cycles to estimate shifts between bull and bear markets. CryptoQuant onchain data show that cyclical bottoms in historical price patterns have often occurred between September and November. Whether the current downturn will persist through the end of 2026 has therefore become an important factor in investors' risk assessments.

Several analysts have recently used historical halving cycles and price models to estimate that Bitcoin may not bottom until the fourth quarter of 2026, with October seen as a potential turning point. Forecasts vary by model: more conservative estimates put the bottom at about $40,000–$50,000, while a bearish scenario points to a possible drop to $30,000. The main market consensus centers on $30,000–$45,000.

Atlas Capital was co-founded by Nouriel Roubini, the economist known as “Dr. Doom” who warned of the 2008 financial crisis. CEO Reza Bundy views Bitcoin as a risk asset that behaves more like technology stocks. His forecast underscores the cryptocurrency’s continued sensitivity to equity markets, global liquidity and confidence in fiat currencies.

Speaking at the Proof of Talk conference in Paris on June 4, 2026, Bundy said Bitcoin could fall as much as 70% over the next six months to $26,000–$30,000 if equities undergo a severe correction. He nevertheless remained bullish on long-term demand, forecasting that Bitcoin could eventually reach $150,000–$500,000.

Bitcoin prices often move through bull and bear cycles shaped by halving cycles and market liquidity. On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant uses indicators including the MVRV Z-score to measure how far market value has diverged from realized value, helping it assess pressure from investor losses and identify long-term bottom zones.

CryptoQuant's latest analysis estimates that Bitcoin could face another shakeout in the second half of 2026 and hit an “iron bottom” of about $55,000 around December. It describes the current market as the middle of a grueling marathon and says another round of position-clearing is needed before a subsequent rebound can begin.