Bitcoin Must Break $81,700 to Confirm Bull Market, CryptoQuant Says

Bitcoin’s 24% rebound from its recent low has prompted investors to assess whether the cryptocurrency is beginning another sustained upcycle. On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant says several market and blockchain indicators have turned bullish, placing Bitcoin in the initial phase of a new bull market. The call matters because early-cycle signals can improve sentiment and liquidity, but they do not by themselves confirm that the longer-term trend has decisively changed.

CryptoQuant said in its latest assessment that Bitcoin must close and hold above its 365-day moving average on a weekly basis, a threshold of about $83,000, before the bull market can be considered officially confirmed. Bitcoin has already rebounded 24%, but $83,000 remains the key dividing line. A sustained break could clear the way for the next leg higher, while failure to hold it would leave the recovery vulnerable.

Bitcoin has fallen by more than half from its record high of $126,000 to below $60,000 in February 2026, and the market is now assessing whether its recent rebound marks a price bottom. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode said the realized market average of $78,200 and the short-term holder cost basis of $79,100 are key benchmarks for confirming a structural recovery.

On May 7, Glassnode said BTC had risen 7% in a week to about $81,000, with the next structural resistance at $85,200. CryptoQuant analyst IT Tech, however, argued that it must break above and hold $88,880. The price retested $79,000 on May 8 before rebounding to $80,000, but US spot ETFs recorded net outflows of $277.5 million the previous day, leaving overhead selling pressure to be absorbed.

CryptoQuant is using on-chain and derivatives data to assess Bitcoin’s market direction. Unlike a short-lived short squeeze driven by bears being forced to cover, newly opened long positions usually signal that investors are actively betting on higher prices. Whether the latest rebounds in Bitcoin and Ethereum can continue is therefore an important indicator of whether the bull market has returned.

At the time of publication, CryptoQuant said the rebound was being driven mainly by new long positions in the derivatives market rather than a short squeeze. If Bitcoin breaks above $69,400 and holds that level, it could go on to test $79,000. The latter is viewed as the next key resistance level and an important threshold for gauging a shift between bull and bear markets.

Bitcoin posted monthly losses for five consecutive months after retreating from its previous high, putting the focus on whether March could end the rare losing streak. Technical analysis compiled by Cointelegraph identified $68,330–$70,000 as the main resistance zone, while the 200-week moving average was seen as the key dividing line for the medium- to long-term outlook.

Bitcoin held on to its monthly gain on March 31, ending the five-month losing streak, but selling pressure around $70,000 continued to limit upside. In April, the market is watching whether Bitcoin can hold above its 200-week moving average. Analysts expect a decisive break above $70,000 could set up a test of $80,000 in the next phase.