CryptoQuant Says Bitcoin Bulls Are Back, With Major Rally Possible Above $69,400

The Coinbase Premium Index is a key gauge of buying demand from major US institutions and large holders, known as whales. It tracks the difference between Bitcoin prices on regulated US exchange Coinbase and those on other exchanges worldwide. A rising premium indicates that US investors are buying aggressively above the global average price. This is often seen as a leading indicator of a bullish crypto market and can play a decisive role in forecasting Bitcoin’s price trajectory.

According to a report released by blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant in mid-July, strong buying by large US investors pushed the Coinbase Premium Index back above its 14-day moving average. The breakout directly helped Bitcoin return to $64,000. Although the premiums for Bitcoin and Ether remain negative, both have rebounded from local lows, indicating that buying momentum is rebuilding and laying the groundwork for a further recovery.

Bitcoin is widely viewed as a volatile risk asset, and its price often moves in tandem with U.S. technology stocks and the Nasdaq. The $60,000 level is both a key psychological threshold and an important test of whether the bullish structure can endure. Analysts also use the 200-week moving average as a major technical gauge of the long-term trend.

Over a recent weekend, Bitcoin held above $60,000 and showed relative resilience despite a marked decline in the Nasdaq, raising expectations that risk capital could return. Analysts said that if BTC continues to hold firmly above its 200-week moving average, it could first test $70,000 and then potentially reach $92,630.

A bullish divergence occurs when prices continue to make new lows while the relative strength index, or RSI, moves higher, suggesting that selling pressure may be easing. Cointelegraph noted that the last time this signal appeared on Bitcoin’s weekly chart was after FTX collapsed in November 2022. Bitcoin then climbed about 715%, from roughly $15,500 to $126,200, drawing attention to the latest signal.

Cointelegraph reported on June 8, 2026, that Bitcoin had fallen from $75,770 to about $63,000 while its weekly RSI recovered from below 30 to above 34. If confirmed, it would be only the second weekly bullish divergence in Bitcoin’s history. Analyst Van de Poppe said a break above $64,000–$65,000 could open the way to the $79,000 CME gap and resistance above $90,000. The 50-week moving-average target is about $91,755.

Bitcoin recently established key support at $75,600, coinciding with a record high for the U.S. S&P 500 and technology-sector earnings that lifted risk appetite. The $80,000 level is seen as the dividing line between bullish and bearish momentum. A decisive break above it would shift the market’s focus to a target of $85,000.

Market tracking on May 20 showed Bitcoin rebounding from a low of $75,600, first reclaiming $77,000 and then rising to about $77,700 intraday. Traders are watching whether it can retake $80,000. Meanwhile, inflows into DOGE and SHIB strengthened, signaling increased short-term speculative demand, though bearish positioning continued to weigh on the market.

Bitcoin has recently faced headwinds from weak U.S. economic data, Walmart’s disappointing forecast and restrictive monetary policy. Continued net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have also weighed on risk appetite, making shifts in professional traders’ positioning an important gauge of the market outlook.

As of July 20, professional traders’ Bitcoin long-to-short ratios on Binance and OKX had risen to two-week highs, signaling renewed market confidence. Although ETF outflows and the macroeconomic environment continued to exert pressure, traders were watching whether BTC could extend its gains and break above $82,000.

Bitcoin has rebounded 17% after falling below $60,000, indicating stronger buying support at lower levels. Glassnode's on-chain data and demand in derivatives markets both point to a gradual return of buyers, but the broader price structure remains in a downtrend. That makes $78,000 a crucial threshold for determining whether bulls can genuinely turn the market around.

As of April 22, the market was focused on the $78,000–$79,200 resistance zone. Glassnode said BTC must reclaim its moving average at about $78,300 and that consolidation could continue for several weeks. Analysts said a break above $78,000 could confirm a reversal, though $79,200 could still serve either as a launchpad for further gains or as renewed resistance.

Bitcoin reclaimed the $70,000 level as institutional buying through U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs picked up, bringing some ETF investors close to breakeven. The market views $68,000 as the key medium-term dividing line between bullish and bearish momentum. Whether Bitcoin can hold above it will help determine if the rebound extends into April.

Bitcoin recently traded above $70,000 at one point during the New York session, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $500 million in net inflows in a single day. Around March 11, analysts said that if the weekly close continued to hold above the $68,000 trendline, a break above $72,000 could quickly propel Bitcoin into the major short-liquidation zone at $80,000.

Bitcoin has seen buying significantly outpace selling near $65,000, indicating that investors are actively buying the dip. This rare trading setup matters because sustained market support could ease near-term selling pressure and create conditions for a rebound from recent lows.

The latest data puts BTC’s key threshold at $66,700. Analysts say holding consistently above that level could trigger a relief rally toward $71,000, representing a potential gain of about 6.4%. The reports did not identify the data provider, the date of the figures or the observation period.

Following Bitcoin’s retreat from its previous peak, most medium-term holders are sitting on unrealized losses, making a dense cost-basis zone an important threshold for identifying a trend reversal. CryptoQuant on-chain data show that holders who have owned BTC for six months to two years have an average cost basis of about $74,500. A move back above that level could ease selling pressure from investors seeking to break even and revive market demand.

Cointelegraph reported on Feb. 26, 2026, that BTC had rebounded 7.45% over two days after falling to $62,400, while support at the roughly $64,200 realized price for 18- to 24-month holders had held for the time being. CoinDesk reported on March 24 that BTC was trading at about $71,238. FxPro said the cryptocurrency would still need to hold above $75,000 to confirm that the decline was over.

Bitcoin and Ethereum had fallen for several consecutive days as investors grew concerned about AI stock valuations and the outlook for global risk assets. Cryptocurrencies often move with risk appetite in U.S. technology shares and Asian equities, making Bitcoin's ability to hold above $66,000 an important gauge of whether market confidence is recovering.

In the latest trading, Bitcoin surged above $66,000, while Ethereum returned to around $1,920, driving a rebound across crypto markets and Asian equities. Investors are now focused on NVIDIA's upcoming earnings and guidance for clues on whether momentum in technology stocks can continue and support the outlook for risk assets.