Bitcoin Buy-Side Imbalance Points to Potential Rebound to $71,000

The Coinbase Premium Index is a key gauge of buying demand from major US institutions and large holders, known as whales. It tracks the difference between Bitcoin prices on regulated US exchange Coinbase and those on other exchanges worldwide. A rising premium indicates that US investors are buying aggressively above the global average price. This is often seen as a leading indicator of a bullish crypto market and can play a decisive role in forecasting Bitcoin’s price trajectory.

According to a report released by blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant in mid-July, strong buying by large US investors pushed the Coinbase Premium Index back above its 14-day moving average. The breakout directly helped Bitcoin return to $64,000. Although the premiums for Bitcoin and Ether remain negative, both have rebounded from local lows, indicating that buying momentum is rebuilding and laying the groundwork for a further recovery.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved spot Bitcoin ETFs on January 10, 2024, and Bitcoin completed its halving on April 20, helping push the cryptocurrency close to its record high. Selling pressure from miners, ETF outflows and a stronger U.S. dollar, however, made $60,000 a key support level for the market.

Bitcoin fell more than 20% from a high of about $72,000 in June 2024 and lost roughly 8.6% for the month, its worst performance since June 2022. It briefly returned to $60,000 on July 3. CoinGlass data show that Bitcoin has gained an average of about 9.6% in July historically. With a concentration of short-liquidation levels above the current price, analysts said Bitcoin could reach $75,000.

Bitcoin has rebounded from an earlier bout of selling, but derivatives leverage has not recovered in tandem. That suggests the rally is more of a post-deleveraging recovery than a broad influx of fresh bullish capital. Velo data showed futures open interest fell from 282,000 BTC to 255,000 BTC during the sell-off, putting the focus on whether bids below the market can absorb renewed selling pressure.

Bitcoin briefly recovered to around $64,000 on Monday, June 8. Spot cumulative volume delta improved by about 11,000 BTC from the previous Friday, while the funding rate turned positive at 0.0013%. Traders also placed bids for about 2,565 BTC between $57,000 and $59,000, worth $162 million at a market price of $63,300. Binance’s order book showed a similar concentration of liquidity.

Bitcoin traded largely between $60,000 and $70,000 from February through April 2026, making $70,000 a key support level for gauging market demand. CoinGlass order-book data showed investors clustering limit buy orders above $70,000. The price would have a chance to stabilize and rebound only if that demand proved sufficient to absorb ETF redemptions and selling pressure on exchanges.

On May 29, CoinGlass recorded buy orders for 6,235 BTC between $70,000 and $72,000, worth about $443 million at the time. Another 1,012 BTC in orders, worth about $69 million, were placed at $68,505, bringing the total above $500 million. Bitcoin had fallen as low as $72,500 by May 31. Data from Velo and Hyblock showed spot buyers and leveraged longs entering the market, but trading volume remained insufficient to confirm a reversal.

Bitcoin recently established key support at $75,600, coinciding with a record high for the U.S. S&P 500 and technology-sector earnings that lifted risk appetite. The $80,000 level is seen as the dividing line between bullish and bearish momentum. A decisive break above it would shift the market’s focus to a target of $85,000.

Market tracking on May 20 showed Bitcoin rebounding from a low of $75,600, first reclaiming $77,000 and then rising to about $77,700 intraday. Traders are watching whether it can retake $80,000. Meanwhile, inflows into DOGE and SHIB strengthened, signaling increased short-term speculative demand, though bearish positioning continued to weigh on the market.

Bitcoin has rebounded 17% after falling below $60,000, indicating stronger buying support at lower levels. Glassnode's on-chain data and demand in derivatives markets both point to a gradual return of buyers, but the broader price structure remains in a downtrend. That makes $78,000 a crucial threshold for determining whether bulls can genuinely turn the market around.

As of April 22, the market was focused on the $78,000–$79,200 resistance zone. Glassnode said BTC must reclaim its moving average at about $78,300 and that consolidation could continue for several weeks. Analysts said a break above $78,000 could confirm a reversal, though $79,200 could still serve either as a launchpad for further gains or as renewed resistance.

Bitcoin has rebounded about 36% from a macro low of $60,000 as technical momentum has rapidly strengthened. A reading of 70 marks the overbought threshold on the daily relative strength index, or RSI. Each of the four similar signals over the past year was followed by a short-term pullback, making Bitcoin’s ability to hold $78,000 critical to determining whether the rally continues or gives way to a correction.

Bitcoin rose to $82,800 on May 6, 2026, while its daily RSI climbed to 70 from a March low of 39. Cointelegraph reported on May 8 that the 200-day exponential moving average, at about $83,000, was acting as resistance. CoinGlass data showed that a break below $78,000 could liquidate more than $3.1 billion in leveraged long positions across the market and send Bitcoin down toward $75,000–$76,000.

Bitcoin has been correcting for about five months since retreating from its record high of $126,000 in October 2025. Although the market regards it as a scarce asset, its 50-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 remains at 84%. Cointelegraph said that if spot ETF flows are merely following Bitcoin's price, the rebound is not enough to prove the bear market has ended.

Bitcoin briefly climbed above $73,000 and approached $74,000 by March 14, 2026. The U.S. Commerce Department said on March 13 that the economy grew just 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025. CoinGlass data showed spot ETFs recorded $583 million in net inflows over four consecutive days, while a separate analyst estimate put the amount accumulated by Strategy through its STRC instrument at more than $900 million.

Bitcoin is highly sensitive to interest-rate and inflation expectations. February’s consumer price index from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics matched market forecasts and did not support a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut. Still, falling oil prices helped ease inflationary pressure and supported risk assets including cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin quickly reversed its overnight losses after the February CPI release, first breaking above $70,100 and then climbing past $71,000. Markets also digested news of a 400 million-barrel oil release. Ether, Solana and Cardano (ADA) rose in tandem, showing little drag from weakness in U.S. stocks.

Following Bitcoin’s retreat from its previous peak, most medium-term holders are sitting on unrealized losses, making a dense cost-basis zone an important threshold for identifying a trend reversal. CryptoQuant on-chain data show that holders who have owned BTC for six months to two years have an average cost basis of about $74,500. A move back above that level could ease selling pressure from investors seeking to break even and revive market demand.

Cointelegraph reported on Feb. 26, 2026, that BTC had rebounded 7.45% over two days after falling to $62,400, while support at the roughly $64,200 realized price for 18- to 24-month holders had held for the time being. CoinDesk reported on March 24 that BTC was trading at about $71,238. FxPro said the cryptocurrency would still need to hold above $75,000 to confirm that the decline was over.